WIPING ISRAEL off the map has been Iran’s unambiguous desire since the 1979 Islamic revolution. Israel, for its part, considers Iran an existential threat. A major showdown was clearly on the cards.
Sitting over 7,500km away, the US had its own reasons to act. Iran’s anti-US stance is as intense as its anti-Israel stance.
Iran, with its geographical spread, strategic location, oil, military capabilities, nuclear pursuit and well-armed proxies, is a dangerous power-centre. Shia Iran also upsets the power balance in the predominantly Sunni region, and the support it has from China and Russia compounds the threat further.
China deepened the quagmire. A $400 billion economic cooperation agreement in 2021, followed by the inauguration in 2025 of a 10,400km China-Iran rail corridor through Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan—cutting sea route time from 30-40 days to 15—gave Iran means to bypass choke points and sanctions. A moderately strong Iran as a Chinese ally had the potential to upset the regional dynamic.
Iran holds about 12 per cent of global oil reserves and is among the cheapest sources—estimated break-even extraction cost of $14 per barrel; Russia’s is $22, Canada’s $30-$40 and US shale’s $45-$55. Sanctions severely restricted Iranian oil exports, but China, through dark fleets, teapot refineries, origin re-labelling and bypassing dollar payments, took over 90 per cent of Iran’s 3 million barrels per day at a discount of $8-$12 per barrel. China got 20 per cent of its oil from Iran and Venezuela until end-2025. Both sources have suddenly dried up.
With Russia preoccupied with Ukraine and an unprecedented political and military purge taking place in China, the timing of Operation Epic Fury seemed perfect. The opening salvo was intense and precise, delivered amid negotiations. But, since then, what 19th century Prussian strategist Helmuth von Moltke said—“No plan survives first contact with the enemy”—has come true. There are signs of this war going the way of Iraq, Afghanistan and Gaza. Even amid incalculable destruction, Iran is still standing, and striking back. Pushed against the wall, it is subjecting the world to the consequences of the war to bring pressure on its opponents.
Oil prices, disrupted and hovering around $100 per barrel, threaten to hit $200. Every country is feeling the pinch; India has managed the crisis better than most. President Donald Trump’s shifting timelines—“short-term excursion” to “pretty quickly”, “very soon” and “four to five weeks”—signal uncertainty. His statement—“nothing is left in Iran to target”—is reminiscent of the US record in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, and points to the possibility of Trump suddenly declaring victory and leaving Israel to do the mopping up.
A nuclear Iran, with scores to settle, will render the world unsafe. But, the sole super power’s unfettered assertion of military might is also doing the same. The Tomahawk strike that killed 175, mostly schoolgirls, is an example. Targeting errors may happen in war, but the hypocrisy in the global reaction to such “inadvertent battlefield errors”, depending on who makes them, stands out.
Iran’s proxies—Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis—will remain considerably degraded and its military capability significantly reduced. But without boots on the ground, there can be no surrender. The dilemma for Trump is likely to be: what would define victory?
Iran has reached a point where it has nothing to lose, or more accurately, it is ready to lose everything in a “jihad”. Internal strife has been overshadowed by the imperative of a sacrificial struggle. If Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, too, is targeted, it only adds further divinity to the image of the supreme leader.
Boots on the ground in Iran will be avoided, except possibly at an isolated island facility. Iran being bombed to rubble and a partial collapse of the regime looks likely; a US-backed replacement does not. Amid the din of war, Israel is cutting down the threat from Lebanon, Gaza and West Bank. Ultimately, another country in the region will be in tatters. Random rogue strike attempts on US and Israeli assets and personnel across the world may follow.
The cost of dependency on the Strait of Hormuz may lead to upgrades to the Saudi East-West pipeline, a revival of the Trans-Arabian pipeline and similar networks to bypass choke points.
Gulf nations have suddenly realised how vulnerable they are. The safe-haven image and infrastructure advantages that made Dubai a premier global business hub took a severe beating. The incidental cover provided by US bases proved inadequate for the Gulf.
What is the likely end state to this war? Israel is working towards a denuclearised and significantly weakened Iran. The US may also be satisfied with the same. Whether it can plant seeds for civil strife or fragment Iran on ethnic lines is too early to assess.
Chinese passiveness is attributable only to internal strife. Iran’s oil infrastructure will take years and vast investment to revive. A war-ravaged, de-fanged and economically ruined Iran may yet fall into Beijing’s lap, but China is likely to tread carefully.
How long will the war last? The most accurate answer is: no one knows. The reason, on a lighter note, is that the man who stopped all the recent wars is, unfortunately, busy fighting this one himself.
The author is a former deputy chief of the Army and currently director, Asia Centre, Bengaluru.