The second wave of Covid-19 has brought to the fore the simmering unrest within the BJP’s state units. The central BJP has had to rush emissaries to at least three states—Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Tripura—to quell rebellion against chief ministers. The emissaries lent a sympathetic ear to the dissenters, but backed the heads of the states.
Grumblings within the BJP grew louder as the second wave exposed limits of administrative reach. These voices gained momentum after the party’s poor show in local body elections, which was attributed to the respective chief ministers’ waning popularity. In Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party’s performance in panchayat elections hinted at its revival, while the Congress and the JD(S) gained in Karnataka local bodies polls.
Similarly, Tripura, where the BJP had a dream run three years ago, saw the emergence of a new opposition in Pradyot Kishore Manikya Deb Barman’s The Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance; TIPRA won the crucial Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council elections. Chief Minister Biplab Kumar Deb is also facing a challenge from a group of MLAs, led by Sudip Roy Barman, who was earlier with the Congress and the Trinamool Congress before joining the BJP in 2017. He revolted against Deb after he was dropped from the cabinet.
BJP general secretary B.L. Santhosh met leaders and MLAs in Tripura, and the party claimed that the matter was resolved. “In families, these things happen, but the matter has been sorted out,” said state BJP chief Manik Saha.
As the assembly elections are due in 2023, the trouble for the BJP is far from over. Trinamool’s new war cry—Khela Hobe, Tripura (Game on, Tripura)—was aimed at the ruling BJP. With BJP national vice president Mukul Roy’s return to the Trinamool, the saffron party will have to be on guard to save its flock, particularly those who had switched sides before the polls. Roy is now determined to bring back the BJP MLAs to Trinamool.
The RSS and BJP old-timers had raised concerns over the entry of turncoats into the party during elections. These turncoats had helped the BJP enter unchartered territories, but they also demanded a greater share of power in different states. Wherever those aspirations have not been fulfilled, the party has faced additional pressure.
According to BJP general secretary Arun Singh, who is in charge of Karnataka, the revolt against Chief Minister B.S. Yediyurappa was led by a few leaders who had come from another party and were not aware of the saffron culture. After months of speculation over Yediyurappa’s continuance following allegations of nepotism and corruption, the party threw its weight behind the Lingayat strongman. The party realises his value in winning elections and forming a BJP government in the state. This consideration outweighs any rebellion against any of the chief ministers in the BJP-ruled states.
In Uttarakhand, the BJP replaced Trivendra Singh Rawat with Tirath Singh Rawat, following feedback on his inept administration that could spoil the party’s poll prospects next year. A similar change in leadership was initiated in Gujarat when Anandiben Patel was replaced with Vijay Rupani just a year before the 2017 polls. The change in guard was carried out with electoral considerations in mind, and not because of dissent.
Various state capitals have been abuzz about leadership change, but the BJP has made it clear that there is no move to dislodge the incumbents. But the political developments in Uttar Pradesh have caught everyone’s eye. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath appears to be firmly in the saddle, but the Covid management during the second wave has led to a lot of resentment on ground, including among party cadre and leaders. Santhosh visited the state twice in a month. There were speculations that former IAS officer A.K. Sharma could be inducted in the Yogi cabinet. The Modi aide, however, was made vice president of the state unit. His entry will add heft to the party organisation in the state.
The BJP has been working hard to scotch rumours of a rift in the state unit, but cryptic messages from state leaders are keeping the buzz alive. State cabinet minister Swami Prasad Maurya, an import from the Bahujan Samaj Party during the last elections, said the BJP’s central leadership will decide the chief minister after elections.
BJP state spokesperson Manish Shukla, however, said: “The organisation is involved in taking the good work done by the state government in the past four and a half years to the people. Even general secretary B.L. Santhosh’s visit is routine as part of organisational work. Elections are still (far) away.”
While parties officially disassociate with dissenting voices, at times, there are attempts to keep the chief ministers under check so that they do not pose any threat to the central leadership. The BJP’s immediate prescriptive solution has been to rejig the party organisation, fill up vacant posts in the organisation, state corporations and boards so that people representing different pressure groups and ambitions are accommodated.
What has given hope to party dissenters and will also keep several chief ministers in check is the Assam example. The BJP did not announce a chief ministerial candidate, to keep the peace in the state units. After elections, Himanta Biswa Sarma was picked over Sarbananda Sonowal for the chief minister’s post. Sonowal is expected to be accommodated in the impending Union cabinet expansion.
To address power imbalances in several states ahead of the next round of polls, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and party chief J.P. Nadda have been engaged in intense discussions in the last few weeks. The course correction has already begun.