Dissent and disillusionment? What led to Pinarayi Vijayan's electoral setback in Kerala

During Onam season in 2012, Pinarayi Vijayan sat with his family, across from actor Navya Nair, who tossed him softball questions as part of an interview for a CPI(M)-run channel. While the party’s rough-and-tough state secretary spoke about his softer side, his daughter Veena brought up his taste in cinema: heroes who could shape-shift, summon superpowers or move with a sixth sense.

From 1998, when he took charge as the party’s state secretary, Vijayan has reshaped both the party and the Left Democratic Front. And over these 28 years, this has made him, among comrades, something larger than a political figure—almost a superhero—earning him a telling moniker: ‘Captain’.

However, the 2026 verdict, which booted him out of power, suggests that the electorate, including a section of left cadres, voted as if they were taking on a “supervillain”.

“For the first time in Kerala’s history, a significant section of left-leaning voters—who had only ever voted for the CPI(M)—turned against it,” said Congress veteran and former chief minister A.K. Antony. “This was not out of affection for the UDF, but out of a fear that another term for Vijayan would be disastrous. They feared a repeat of what happened to the left in West Bengal.”

Opposition leader V.D. Satheesan was among the few who sensed this dissent and turned it into an electoral strategy. A crucial step was to project the Congress as the real Nehruvian left and repeatedly call the CPI(M) an extreme right-wing party.

Notably, the victories of three ousted CPI(M) rebels—G. Sudhakaran, V. Kunhikrishnan and T.K. Govindan—who contested with UDF backing and won in CPI(M) strongholds, underscore the scale of dissent within the left ecosystem.

Kunhikrishnan told THE WEEK that he had not expected to win, but he did sense an undercurrent. “Even they knew it existed, but they, too, couldn’t measure its extent,” he said. “Without the party altering its stance—if it continues with arrogance and authoritarian tendencies—it cannot move forward in today’s times.” He still believes the LDF government delivered on several fronts, but argues that voters ultimately punished it for its arrogance.

Notably, there is another section of left-leaning voices that has called out the CPI(M) for not being truly left at all. S. Mini, a key organiser of the ASHA protests that shook the government, told THE WEEK: “The government functioned in ways that were anti-women, anti-democratic and even anti-left. Ordinary citizens could not access the secretariat or meet the chief minister. Over five years, frustration built up, and this verdict is a response to that.”

Mini recalled that when ASHA workers staged protests on the streets for better benefits—braving rain and harsh sun—even the tarpaulin they used for shelter was removed by the police. “A genuinely left government would not act this way,” she argued. She also pointed to violent confrontations and alleged encounter killings carried out in the name of anti-Maoist operations. “These are actions even extreme right-wing forces might hesitate to take,” she said, adding that Kerala had historically been shaped by people’s movements, but that legacy had weakened during the Vijayan era.

K.K. Rema, MLA-elect from Vadakara and widow of murdered leader T.P. Chandrasekharan—an expelled CPI(M) leader who founded the Revolutionary Marxist Party—told THE WEEK that what Kunhikrishnan and others were facing now mirrored what the RMP had endured. She noted that the losses in strongholds showed that even supporters had grown weary of what she called ‘Pinarayism’.

Interestingly, even after such a heavy defeat, the CPI(M) said there was no anti-incumbency. Said party general secretary M.A. Baby: “We have received reports from several independent studies. Even in those reports, there has been no indication that the government acted against the people or that voters expressed dissatisfaction over any wrong decisions.”

Reacting to this, social critic K.C. Umesh Babu recalled the words of Bertolt Brecht after workers in East Germany rose up against the communist government:

“Would it not be easier

In that case for the government

To dissolve the people

And elect another.”

Interestingly, amid the strong anti-Vijayan wave, the BJP registered its best performance in the state, winning three seats. While some describe the CPI(M) as the “largest Hindu party” in Kerala, citing its social base, few argue that this verdict will trigger any immediate, large-scale shift of cadres to the BJP fold.

“In Kerala, political movements have not been ‘lumpenised’ to the extent seen in West Bengal in the past,” says political scientist J. Prabhash. “Except in places like Kannur, this level of intimidation or control over voters is not widespread. However, a significant shift of CPI(M) votes—especially among Hindus—towards the BJP cannot be ruled out [over the years].... There are already signs of shifts among Nair and Ezhava voters.”

A senior RSS pracharak, who did not want to be named, told THE WEEK: “Just because both Bengal and Kerala have a Marxist party, we shouldn’t assume they are similar. There are less visible but significant forces here—organised minority communities that function as political actors. Their population share is relatively large, and this has made it difficult for the BJP to gain ground in Kerala.”

Prabhash noted that in recent years, the RSS has been trying to expand BJP growth through exclusive social spaces for women (through temples) and broader collective spaces for Hindus (large events). “Interestingly, even under a left government, such events have faced little resistance,” he said. “This reflects a broader shift—the ‘soft hindutva’ line adopted by the left. Historically, when soft hindutva competes with hard hindutva, the latter tends to prevail.”

He added that while this appears to be a long-term strategy, “long term” does not necessarily mean 20 to 30 years. “It could materialise within five to ten,” he said.