Bengal's political shift: From BJP's rise to TMC's electoral struggles

Chants of ‘Jai Shri Ram’ replaced the familiar ‘Joy Bangla’ slogans of the Trinamool Congress outside the lane leading to party supremo Mamata Banerjee’s Kalighat residence after the BJP’s sweeping victory on May 4. After 15 years as chief minister, Mamata’s loss to rival Suvendu Adhikari in her once-safe constituency of Bhabanipur raises serious questions about her political future.

Having earlier lost to Adhikari in Nandigram by 1,956 votes in the 2021 assembly polls, Mamata had shifted to Bhabanipur, a Trinamool stronghold since the 2011 delimitation. However, as her lead steadily narrowed on the evening of May 4, she stormed into the Bhabanipur counting centre at Sakhawat Memorial Government Girls’ High School and later walked out alleging irregularities by BJP workers and election officials. By round 15, her margin had reduced to 2,929 votes. By round 16, Mamata trailed Adhikari by 563 votes. She lost the seat by 15,105 votes after 20 rounds of counting.

The massive 92.9 per cent voter turnout indicated an anti-incumbency wave, reminiscent of the 2011 assembly polls that ended the left front’s 34-year rule and brought the Trinamool to power. One major factor behind the high turnout was the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls. Around 60 lakh absent, shifted, dead and deleted (ASDD) voters were removed, reducing the electorate from 7.6 crore to around 6.8 crore. Many migrant labourers and outstation workers returned home to cast their vote, fearing exclusion from future electoral rolls.

The deployment of nearly 2,500 companies of the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) during each of the two polling phases boosted voter confidence. Live webcasting and CAPF presence in polling booths were intended to deter violence and ensure free voting.

The Election Commission ordered repolls in certain booths during the second phase after complaints of malpractices were found to be genuine. Repolling in parts of Falta in South 24 Parganas district and sections of Diamond Harbour constituency is scheduled for May 21, but it will not affect the BJP’s prospects.

Corruption charges against the Trinamool government played a significant role in shaping voter sentiment. Political analysts say the BJP successfully combined political anti-incumbency with its focus on employment, investment and social welfare. “The BJP says they will give Rs3,000 instead of the current Rs1,500 [as monthly unemployment allowance], and bring employment and investment. They have addressed the issue of unemployment. The positive messaging has given the BJP the power to garner majority votes. Many Trinamool supporters voted for the BJP, with a significant division in minority votes, too,” said political analyst Udayan Bandhyopadhyay.

Enforcement Directorate raids and questioning of Trinamool leaders such as Ministers Debashish Kumar and Sujit Bose ahead of polling reinforced the public perception that the party was deeply corrupt. The multi-crore West Bengal School Service Commission recruitment scam, which surfaced in 2022 and led to the arrest of former minister Partha Chatterjee, remained a symbol of the alleged corruption.

Voters were angry after Mamata intervened during the January 8 ED raids at the offices of Indian Political Action Committee (I-PAC) and its director Pratik Jain. She walked out with documents and electronic devices, angering voters and making the raids a major talking point. The presence of senior bureaucrats and police officers, including the chief secretary and police commissioner, at the I-PAC office drew criticism and prompted ED to allege interference in the investigation.

The BJP also capitalised on the public anger against the alleged “syndicate raj”, under which Trinamool members were accused of routing construction contracts and building material to their favoured contractors. In urban constituencies especially, voters complained of coercion and extortion. Dissatisfaction with Mamata’s nephew Abhishek Banerjee was also evident, with allegations of extortion levelled against his associates.

Abhishek’s perceived emergence as Mamata’s political successor did not sit well with many voters, including Trinamool supporters. Many felt Abhishek had failed to cultivate the kind of grassroots connect that had made Mamata a mass leader.

Former ministers Sujit Bose and Aroop Biswas lost their urban constituencies of Biddhanagar and Tollygunge, respectively, reflecting the public anger over the failed Lionel Messi event in December 2025. Messi fans who had spent heavily on tickets were left disappointed when he did not appear, and refunds became a contentious issue. Though Biswas resigned as youth and sports affairs minister, the controversy continued to plague the Trinamool.

Minority appeasement was another major factor. The BJP’s rhetoric around alleged Bangladeshi infiltration and the hindutva push found resonance across sections of society. Many Hindu voters questioned what they perceived as Mamata’s preferential treatment towards Muslims. The perception of being excluded from benefits consolidated Hindu votes behind the BJP.

West Bengal’s inability to shed its anti-industry image also became a major electoral issue. Mamata Banerjee had come to power in 2011 riding on anti-land acquisition protests in Singur and Nandigram. But now, a section of farmers have voted for the BJP’s promise of industry and jobs for their children.

At a BJP rally addressed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in January, several farmers expressed frustration with unemployment and the lack of industrial growth. “My 25-year-old daughter has completed BA and still has no job. She cries every day. We want Tata to come back,” said Dwairik Ghosh.

Government welfare schemes such as Lakshmir Bhandar, Yuva Saathi and allowances to muezzins and priests were no longer sufficient to satisfy many voters, especially unemployed youth seeking jobs. “This scheme gives us Rs1,500, which is taxpayers’ money,” said Arkaprava Das, a beneficiary of the Yuva Saathi scheme for unemployed youth. “A proper government job with pension and benefits would be better.”

Government employees were frustrated over long-pending dearness allowance (DA) arrears. The BJP’s promise to implement the seventh pay commission attracted sections of the salaried class. The promise to double welfare payment while promising industrial growth and employment also made a deep impact.

Mamata’s image as a champion of women’s empowerment also suffered after the 2024 R.G. Kar Government Hospital rape and murder case. Ratna Debnath, the victim’s mother, contested and won from Panihati on a BJP ticket. “The people of Panihati are with me,” she said after her victory, “and this vote is for my daughter, for justice and for the women of Bengal who have long suffered under a government that ignores their cries.”