Is the Ukraine war presenting only headaches to India or opportunity?

Operation Ganga is a high-optics mission to bring back Indian nationals from Ukraine’s war zone. The death of medical student Naveen Shekharappa has brought home the war, underscoring the danger to civilian populations. With four Union ministers dispatched to various border areas to oversee evacuations and Prime Minister Narendra Modi making calls to heads of border countries—Romania, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia—as well as Vladimir Putin and Volodomyr Zelenskyy, India’s immediate concern is to get its people back home, safely.

It is not an easy task, given the massive exodus from Ukraine. Neither aggressor nor defendant, and certainly not the rest of the world, had expected this war to stretch this far. Around 8,000 of the approximate 20,000 Indians are out of Ukraine already. Russia is now working on opening humanitarian corridors from Ukraine for such evacuations.

However, there are bigger headaches facing India in the long run, and not all of them are dependent on what position India takes in this conflict. Call it payback for the steadfast way in which Russia stood by India, call it compulsions of robust military cooperation, but so far, India has not gone against Russia on the international platform. It has adeptly used diplomatese to condemn the war without apportioning blame, yet, refused to vote against Russia at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC)—to condemn the invasion, and even to convene a special session of the UN general assembly. It maintained a similar stance at the UN Human Rights Commission. “We take positions based on certain very careful considerations… we will take decisions in our best interests,” explained Foreign Secretary Harshvardhan Shringla.

India has always voted carefully whenever there is a resolution concerning the big powers, especially their interventions in another country, said India’s former permanent representative to the UN, Dilip Sinha.

In 2011, for instance, when India was in the UNSC, it abstained from voting for a no-fly zone over Libya that the US initiated. Experts believe that India’s decision to abstain from a vote is not in conflict with its position regarding the “territorial sovereignty” of a country. Deputy director-general of Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, Major General Bipin Bakshi (rtd), recounted the massive campaigns launched on Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan by nations that were not even located in the same continent. “The same powers that bombed Libya and Iraq had condemned India’s actions in 1971,” said Bakshi. “India will have to take a posture on the issue that best serves her interests, and the posture might see some modification as the situation unfolds.”

“We are strategic partners. We are very grateful to India for its balanced position at the UN. India understands the depth and reasons for the current crisis, it sees the whole situation in all its complexities, not just at face value. That is why it stands so balanced and unbiased,” said Russia’s ambassador-designate to India, Denis Alipov. “We hope India will continue to take that position.”

Right now, loyalty to Russia still counts. Especially when that can be done by abstention, without having to vote for or against. Then, it gives India the space to reach out to the other side, too. India has started sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

Justifying a position may be the easier part. Managing its repercussions is another story. So far, the west has not said anything about India’s position, knowing well that the Indo-Russian friendship has to be factored into every pact and grouping it makes with India. “They know they can go only as far with India,” said Harsh Pant of the Observer Research Foundation. Thus, the Quad remains a nonmilitary grouping, its “security’’ element encompassing all forms of security—health, livelihood, even climate change. The military trilateral Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) was rustled up because Quad will not walk that extra step. AUKUS comfortably complements Quad. Russia, similarly, did not say anything when India made a new bestie, the US, to play together in the Indo-Pacific. Russia is fine, as long as its red lines are not crossed. Ukraine is that red line.

With geopolitics rapidly polarising, will partners remain as understanding? The US earlier turned a blind eye on Russia’s S-400 deal with India but invoked Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) against Turkey for the same. It might not be so accommodating in the future. Given that the bulk of India’s military equipment is still Russian, despite recent diversifications, these sanctions could hit India. Russia itself is not likely to be affected much by sanctions. Decades of sanctions have made it the kind of atmanirbhar (self-reliant) that in India is still a work in progress. “We need to work on innovative ways of avoiding sanctions in future, say by having special purpose vehicles with a ruble-rupee swap system,” said Anil Trigunayat, former envoy and distinguished fellow at Vivekananda International Foundation.

Alipov said the S-400 deal was done in a way that it is immune to past and any new sanctions. “Rest assured, there is hundred per cent surety on this,” he said. But overall trade may see the impact, despite there being a mechanism for doing business in the ruble-rupee swap. “A lot will depend on Indian partners, some of whom are cautious about doing business because of their exposure to the European and US markets,” said Alipov.

Grand plans of alternate transport routes, especially the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) might get affected, too. However, the changes in Afghanistan have already impacted this project negatively. There are too many factors at play affecting the outcome of this ambitious project.

Denis Alipov, Russia’s ambassador-designate to India

The world is a complicated place. While the robustness of India’s friendship with Russia is time-tested, India’s people-to-people and economic engagement is more intense with the western world. Those ties are only getting stronger. Given the potential of India’s market, it is not that simple for other nations to punish India for its Russian loyalty. The age of isolating India is long past. The hits could come in other forms, like calling out India for human rights violations and minority issues. India is rather thin-skinned over such criticisms and still has to learn to counter them without raising its hackles. While resolutions on such issues do not have an economic impact, they impact perceptions. India is rather touchy about how it is perceived, unlike Russia, which remains unfazed.

Isolating Russia, on the other hand, has other risks. For one, the nation is largely sanction-proof (Russian diplomat Roman Babushkin even said sanctions will give them further opportunities to strengthen self-reliance). On the other, isolating Russia only ensures that the Russia-China tie gets tighter, something the west would not want either. The US maintains China as its biggest threat. This prospect is a big worry for India, too. Could the Russian-Chinese friendship get to a stage when it could endanger India? Memories of 1962 are still sharp, when India found itself all alone while facing China’s aggression. The optimists think differently. “Russia and China need each other on the global stage. Russia needs India to contain China in its backyard,” said Trigunayat.

Russia is changing the world. The longer the war continues, the more drastically different will be the new format. There might come a point when India will have to take sides. But could India not help shape the future, instead? A time of adversity can also be one of opportunity. India is in that unique position when it can talk with everyone—Russia, the US, Ukraine. By remaining neutral, it has strengthened its position. China abstained from voting, too. The difference is that China does not have credibility with the west. “This is the moment when we should offer ourselves, become proactive. We can be that neutral ground for talks,” said Trigunayat. Former external affairs minister Yashwant Sinha has called upon Modi to offer to mediate in the conflict, and become a Vishwaguru if he can help stop the war. “If India can skillfully manage this situation, it can [truly] take its permanent place in the Security Council [which it aspires for],” said Alexey Kuprianov, south and Central Asia expert at the Russian Academy of Sciences.