Michigan Senate race shaken as Democrat Haley Stevens endorses Republican Mike Rogers

As Americans head to the polls for the midterms, Michigan Democrats have lost what a party can least afford to lose in a close race: the appearance of unity. Haley Stevens, a sitting Democratic Representative, crossed the aisle on Sunday, standing outside a Detroit church with Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee for the Senate. She endorsed him over her own party's candidate, Abdul El-Sayed. The open seat could help decide control of the senate where Republicans now hold 53 seats.

El-Sayed, a progressive former public health official, won the Democratic nomination in August, beating Stevens in the Democratic primary by less than a percentage point. Support for Israel was a key sticking point in the primary. Stevens had tens of millions of dollars in backing from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, and El-Sayed repeatedly called her its puppet. She in turn condemned his opposition to American military aid to Israel and his criticism of its conduct in Gaza. A hug at a post-primary unity breakfast settled little. The two did not campaign together and, by most accounts, did not speak for months. Stevens felt increasingly shut out, while El-Sayed behaved as though he could win without her coalition.

The past few days provided the final spark for the break. An outside group ran an advertisement showing shoppers rationing groceries to pay for foreign aid to Israel. Stevens called it antisemitic and demanded that El-Sayed repudiate it. He replied that his campaign had not made the advertisement and that he disagreed with its message. She pressed further, and his aides accused her of fighting the primary a second time. Party leaders had arranged a joint appearance with Representative Jim Clyburn at the Detroit church yesterday to display harmony. Instead the El-Sayed campaign, through Representative Debbie Dingell, asked Stevens to stay away from its remaining events. 

She went to the church regardless, and she went with Rogers. Outside, she said more than once that El-Sayed had made plain she was not welcome in his campaign. A video endorsing Rogers followed. "Who we are as Michiganders is not hate," she said, "and that is not what we are getting out of our Democratic nominee right now." The words were aimed at the advertisement, yet they landed on the nominee himself.

The response from her own side was swift and unusually harsh. Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, called the endorsement a "despicable betrayal". Nancy Pelosi described it as an abandonment of Michigan families. Curtis Hertel, who chairs the state party, declared that Stevens was no longer a member. Reports say most of her congressional staff learned of the move through social media and resigned. A bystander outside the church called her a traitor. El-Sayed was dismissive, saying he did not think about Stevens and was focused on voters. His campaign said it raised $1.2 million within hours of the news, which suggests that the anger of Democratic donors may be worth more to him than her endorsement was ever likely to be to Rogers.

Republicans were quick to claim a gift in an otherwise testing season. Rogers praised her courage. Donald Trump called her "very brave" and invited her to join the Republican Party. Their enthusiasm needs some tempering. Before the defection, polls from CNN and the New York Times and Siena College had El-Sayed ahead of Rogers by five to seven points, and in some surveys by more. An endorsement from a defeated primary rival is seldom decisive, and it remains unclear whether Jewish, Black or moderate voters will move because Stevens has. Democrats argue that the spectacle will consolidate their base behind El-Sayed. Republicans hope that it will unsettle the voters who still doubt him.

Both readings carry weight, and the timing favours neither neatly. Early ballots are already in, so the quarrel arrives too late to reshape every vote and early enough to dominate the final news cycle. For Rogers, the story is of a Democratic Party that cannot hold its own house together. For El-Sayed, it is of a party that closed ranks the moment it was tested. Democrats must hold Michigan and flip several competitive seats elsewhere to take the chamber, so a stumble here would be costly.