Lula stages historic comeback, but Brazil remains deeply divided

Brazil has returned Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to the presidency for a fourth term, and the margin is narrow enough to keep the quarrel alive. With nearly all ballots counted in the runoff, the 80-year-old leftist held 51.8 per cent of the vote, more than 64 million ballots, against 48.2 per cent for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The gap exceeds 4.4 million votes. Crowds in São Paulo and other major cities celebrated through the night, while the loser prepared a challenge. Lula is due to take office in January 2027.

The result reverses the arithmetic of the first round. On October 4, Bolsonaro led with 47 per cent to Lula's 45, and many analysts doubted that a deficit of this kind could be closed in three weeks. Lula closed it by winning roughly three of every four newly available votes. These came from supporters of eliminated candidates, earlier non-voters and those who had cast blank ballots. Between the two rounds he added 10.4 million votes, while Bolsonaro added 3.7 million. No candidate since the return to democracy in 1985 has won the presidency after finishing second in the first round. Lula now has.

Just before polls were due to close, Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin granted a two-hour extension, keeping stations open until 7 pm Brasília time. Both campaigns had petitioned the court. Lula's team cited disrupted public transport and reduced bus services in working-class strongholds such as Bahia and São Paulo, while Bolsonaro's camp pointed to heavy rain in the south. The ruling satisfied neither side for long. Bolsonaro declined to concede, accused the judiciary of changing the rules mid-game and said he would seek annulment of the result. His allies called the decision a judicial coup and noted that Zanin once served as Lula's personal defence lawyer. The courts, rather than the streets, are now likely to decide how settled this victory feels.

After the first-round setback, Lula turned to the cost of living. He promoted debt relief for small entrepreneurs, proposed free public transport at weekends and backed a constitutional amendment to shorten the six-day working week. A large social media effort, built around networks such as "Lula's Army", targeted younger voters and sought to blunt opposition narratives. Bolsonaro ran on law and order, lower taxes and an explicit pledge to grant amnesty to his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. He carried corruption allegations over an illegal payment from a disgraced banker, yet he kept the loyalty of conservatives anxious about inflation, public spending and judicial overreach. A near-even split of the electorate suggests that neither message failed.

Beyond Brazil, the outcome cuts against a regional current. Right-wing candidates allied with or favoured by US President Donald Trump had won seven consecutive elections across Latin America, including in Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Peru. Lula's win keeps the region's two most populous nations, Brazil and Mexico, under left-of-centre leadership. He campaigned hard on sovereignty, warned against foreign interference and said Brazil would not become anyone's backyard. Expect an independent foreign policy, with trade at its core and China, the European Union and the wider Global South as the main partners. Environmentalists welcomed the result, anticipating firmer protection for the Amazon and for rare earth reserves than the pro-agribusiness Bolsonaro camp would have offered.

However, Lula will have to keep in mind that more than 48 per cent of voters chose Bolsonaro, and the country remains deeply polarised. Lula must also govern with what is described as the most right-wing Congress of the modern democratic era, in which Bolsonaro's Liberal Party holds the largest bloc. Relations between the executive and lawmakers were already strained before the count ended, with allies on both sides speaking of the other in adversarial terms. Passing economic legislation, easing household debt and answering public anxiety over safety will all require votes that he does not clearly command.