A truce in name only? Why Russia and Ukraine are still targeting energy sites

Russia launched about 200 drones and a succession of glide bombs against Ukrainian energy, port, and transport facilities last night, an assault that came within hours of US President Donald Trump's declaration of an "energy ceasefire".

Kyiv absorbed strikes on several energy installations, which caused power cuts, left one person dead, and injured seven, while in Kharkiv a thermal plant and a grocery store were hit, killing three civilians and wounding 20. The heaviest toll fell on Zaporizhzhia and Sloviansk, where bombardment of residential districts brought down apartment blocks and took at least 23 live

Ukraine responded with long-range strikes on the Syzran oil refinery in Samara, a drone plant in Taganrog, and a drone preparation site in Oryol, and it attacked a Yandex data centre in Vladimir for the third time, forcing the company to suspend operations there, while the Slavneft-Yanos refinery was also targeted. The choice of the data centre was notable, as Ukraine seems keen on taking the war beyond conventional targets.

As far as the tentative ceasefire is concerned, Moscow has so far offered positive words, but without any firm commitment. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the proposal as a "very good idea" under discussion with Washington, while stopping short of confirming a binding agreement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has set conditions of his own, insisting that any energy truce be reciprocal and supported by enforceable security guarantees.

Meanwhile, Trump’s diesel purchase arrangement with Russia, which surprised domestic as well as international observers, continues to cost the administration goodwill at home, where seven senators—three Democrats and four Republicans—issued a joint statement arguing that it breaches congressional mandates against Russian energy imports. European leaders have voiced the related concern that easing pressure on Moscow invites further aggression.

Friction over the repeated refinery strikes has turned personal. Trump said Zelensky should "damn well stop" hitting Russian oil facilities, and even called for a leadership change. Zelensky responded on American television that the leadership of Ukraine is a matter only for Ukrainian voters. Reports then suggested that the White House had threatened to suspend the procurement framework that supplies Kyiv with weapons in order to press it into halting the strikes, a prospect that Ukrainian officials say would cripple air defences at the moment Russian raids are growing heavier, as last night showed.

The damage extends to the negotiating table, since Ukrainian representatives in Florida reportedly left talks with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner early, having been caught unawares by the diesel agreement, while Oleksandr Merezhko, who chairs the foreign affairs committee in Kyiv, warned that coercing Ukraine risked a modern "Molotov–Ribbentrop pact" in which sovereignty is traded for commerce at the expense of European security.

Allies have drawn closer to Kyiv in the meantime. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, French President Emmanuel Macron, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen held consultations with Zelensky and pledged continued support, favouring a genuine and lasting energy ceasefire with sanctions pressure on Moscow kept in place.

Markets, however, responded positively to the ceasefire news, with Brent crude for December delivery falling 1.33 per cent to $103.33 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate for November slipping 1.68 per cent to $90.31 on hopes of additional Russian supply. But there are other threats on the horizon, such as the Houthi missile strikes on Saudi Arabia and Hurricane Isaias, which has disrupted offshore output in the Gulf of Mexico.