European intelligence officials are warning of a potential Russian attack on NATO territory within months, fueled by increased aggression and tactics like sabotage and false-flag operations. While the imminence of a direct attack is debated, there's a consensus that Russia is preparing for more assertive actions in Europe, with a focus on disrupting critical infrastructure and defense industries. This heightened threat perception prompts European governments to bolster their defenses against hybrid warfare tactics.

European intelligence officials are warning of a potential Russian attack on NATO territory within months, fueled by increased aggression and tactics like sabotage and false-flag operations. While the imminence of a direct attack is debated, there's a consensus that Russia is preparing for more assertive actions in Europe, with a focus on disrupting critical infrastructure and defense industries. This heightened threat perception prompts European governments to bolster their defenses against hybrid warfare tactics.

European intelligence officials are warning of a potential Russian attack on NATO territory within months, fueled by increased aggression and tactics like sabotage and false-flag operations. While the imminence of a direct attack is debated, there's a consensus that Russia is preparing for more assertive actions in Europe, with a focus on disrupting critical infrastructure and defense industries. This heightened threat perception prompts European governments to bolster their defenses against hybrid warfare tactics.

Intelligence officials in Europe think that the possibility of an attack from Russia on NATO is imminent in a “matter of months”.

In an interview with The Guardian, three European intelligence leaders shared their view on the potential threat. The fear of an escalation comes amid an increase in Russian attacks on Ukraine earlier this week.

Michal Koudelka, the head of the Czech Republic’s BIS security service, said that Russia could attack on NATO territory bordering the country with "limited incursion, false-flag provocations, a massive influence campaign.” He said the scenario could play out in a “matter of months, not years”.

He also added that  “a lot of people are doing everything they can to make sure this doesn’t happen”.

Normunds Mežviets, the director general of the VDD, Latvia’s state security service, however, thought that playing up the prospect of the attack could be playing directly into the Kremlin’s hands.

“We don’t see indications of an imminent attack,” Mežviets said. However, he agreed that there were signs that Moscow was making preparations for more decisive action in Europe. He also said that it was not clear whether the plans were simply part of a destabilisation strategy.

“It’s still an open question if they have direct and concrete plans or if it’s just within the context of their overall attempts to spread fear and uncertainty in western society,” he said.

Thomas Nilsson, the head of Sweden’s military intelligence and security service, meanwhile said that he hadn't seen signs that Moscow was serious about real negotiations with the US concerning the war in Ukraine.

“My assessment is that they are still thinking that they could achieve their strategic objectives, so they are just playing negotiation theatre,” he added.

All three officials said that Russia’s campaign of sabotage in Europe is likely to intensify in the coming months.

Nilson referred to the recent armed drone incident at Leipzig airport, which German authorities attributed to Russian intelligence and called it a “game changer”. “To have an armed UAV drone sent into a busy airport in the middle of Europe … If you have attacks that could result in losses of life or losses of very critical infrastructure that have a huge implication for society, I think that is a game-changer,” he said.

Mežviets said that Russia was now moving from random attacks to specific targets with the intention to sow panic among Nato countries that back Ukraine.

“We see them looking to attack railway infrastructure, Ukraine support infrastructure. Right now we see a move towards defence industry targets,” he said. “If you do this then the psy-op effect is reached anyway, so you get both things in one,” he added.

He said that the recent intensification of Russian sabotage activity was to reduce support for Ukraine and to introduce splits into NATO and alarm the European populations. I think Moscow would love NATO to have endless discussions about Article 4 consultations, but coming up with no actions,” he said.

Koudelka told the Guardian that the sabotage campaign would wear out the intelligence services of Nato countries. “Now every fire or every malfunction needs to be investigated by intelligence services as a potential terror attack, and that is a good result for them,” he said.

The warnings come after Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, told parliament that intelligence assessments suggested Russia might launch an attack with drones or missiles on Nato territory in the coming months, as part of efforts to prove that “Article 5 is more theoretical than practical”.

European governments have been preparing for an escalation after several hybrid incidents the continent was attributed to Russia.

US media meanwhile reported that CIA Director John Ratcliffe travelled to Moscow last month and warned Russian officials against attacking NATO members, with particular emphasis on Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

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