Russia vs Japan: Decoding Putin's provocative trip to Kuril Islands

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first-ever visit to the disputed Kuril Islands, known in Japan as the Northern Territories, has triggered a major diplomatic backlash from Tokyo. The sudden trip to Iturup (known as Etorofu in Japan), one of the southernmost islands in the chain, has plunged already icy bilateral relations to a new post-Cold War low.

Japan’s outrage stems from its long-held position that these islands are its sovereign territory under illegal Russian occupation. Following the news of the visit, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi summoned the Russian Ambassador to Japan, Nikolay Nozdrev, to issue a "strong protest". "The Northern Territories, including Iturup Island, are inherently Japanese territory both historically and under international law, and the Government of Japan strongly protests this visit," Motegi wrote on social media. He told the Russian ambassador that the unilateral trip would have an "extremely negative impact on Japan-Russia relations".

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was equally scathing, condemning Putin's actions as "absolutely unacceptable" and "incompatible with Japan's consistent position". Highlighting the damage to bilateral diplomacy, Takaichi said, "Even amid the harsh state of Japan-Russia relations following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Japan has made every possible effort, but this visit can only be said to have further hardened anti-Russia sentiment within Japan and made medium- to long-term recovery of relations more difficult."

The conflict revolves around four islands at the southern end of the Kuril chain: Etorofu (Iturup), Kunashiri (Kunashir), Shikotan, and the Habomai islet group. Located just off Hokkaido, the archipelago separates the Sea of Okhotsk from the Pacific Ocean. Beyond their high strategic military value, the islands provide access to rich fishing grounds and potentially lucrative mineral and rare earth deposits.

The dispute dates back to August 1945. As Japan was preparing to surrender to end World War II, the Soviet Union declared war on Tokyo and seized the islands. The Soviet military subsequently expelled the entire native Japanese population of approximately 17,000 people. Today, nearly 20,000 Russians live there.

The dispute is the reason why Russia and Japan are yet to sign a formal treaty to officially end World War II hostilities. Russia had agreed in 1956 to return the Shikotan and the Habomai group of islands, but no real progress was made despite decades of negotiations. Bilateral efforts intensified under the late Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, who met Putin dozens of times to explore a step-by-step compromise. However, these talks collapsed completely in 2022 after Russia suspended negotiations in retaliation for Japan joining G7 sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

There could be several reasons for the timing of Putin's visit. Officially, the Kremlin stated that Putin travelled to the region to oversee major Pacific Fleet exercises. These massive naval drills—involving roughly 60 warships, 30 aircraft and over 13,000 personnel—demonstrate Russia's capacity to secure its borders while the war is on in Europe.

The visit serves as a direct rebuke to Tokyo’s alignment with western sanctions over the Ukraine war. By visiting the islands, Putin has signalled that Russia will make no territorial concessions to nations it deems "unfriendly".

Moscow is deeply concerned about deeper security cooperation between Japan and NATO, including plans to establish a NATO liaison office in Tokyo. Putin warned during his trip that NATO is "infiltrating" the Pacific, and used the visit to caution Japan against further defence build-ups.

In 2024, Putin publicly promised to visit the islands. Doing that now helps shift domestic attention away from frustrations on the Ukrainian front—where long-range strikes have struck deep inside Russia—by projecting strength in the Far East. The visit took place just two days before Japan marks the 81st anniversary of its World War II surrender, a highly charged symbolic timeline.

Bilateral relations are expected to turn even frostier following the visit. The Japanese government is actively considering countermeasures, which may include strengthening existing economic sanctions against Moscow. Takaichi also indicated that Japan will "carefully consider" its response regarding humanitarian visits by elderly former Japanese residents of the disputed islands to their ancestors’ graves there. These visits had previously served as one of the last remaining cooperative dialogue channels between the two nations. In fact, two weeks ago, Takaichi met with a group of junior high school students whose grandparents and great grandparents were former island residents and had promised them to take steps to resume the programme.

Moscow, meanwhile, shows no intention of backing down. Russian authorities have steadily militarised the islands with coastal defence missiles and fighter jets. Following the visit, Russia's former president and current deputy head of the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, issued a harsh warning, stating the islands "were, are and will remain Russian land" and warning of "monstrous consequences" for anyone challenging that status.

The international community remains divided. While Western nations maintain solidarity with Japan's position, Russia has aligned closely with China to challenge the regional status quo. Mirroring Putin's visit, the Russian and Chinese ambassadors to Japan released a joint statement pledging to oppose any attempts to "revise the results of World War II" and warning against "re-militarisation" in the Asia-Pacific.