Why will Russia invade Poland? Putin ready for limited war with NATO next, thinks US

There is a possibility that Europe could witness further fighting and bloodshed if Russia fails to find an end to the Ukrainian invasion that doesn't end in embarrassment, a report said. Vladimir Putin's administration may take a break to gather itself militarily, rebuild and replenish itself, and attack one of the smaller North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies, it added.

As per US intelligence, Putin's agenda is not to initiate a full-fledged confrontation with the alliance, but to test its resolve. The Kremlin wishes to check how far the stronger alliance members will go if one of their smaller nations is threatened.

Under NATO's Article 5, an armed attack against one NATO member is considered an attack against all members under its collective-defence principle. NATO reaffirmed this commitment as recently as the 2026 Ankara Summit, stating: "An attack on one is an attack on all."

An unfavourable conclusion to the offensive on Kyiv means Putin may decide to target Poland or one of the Baltic states next, CNN said in a report. What may begin as a cyberattack could make way for a limited military incursion "designed to challenge NATO’s unity and its commitment to collective defence," the report said.

"Russia obviously fears nuclear escalation with NATO, but it may not fear NATO itself. A series of incidents preceded the missile in Poland and the drone in Germany, including foiled attacks on rail lines and swarms of drones flying deep into NATO airspace. Each incursion has a thin veneer of deniability but is almost certainly the Kremlin’s handiwork," The Washington Post said in a report.

Why Ukraine's NATO ambitions matter to Russia?

It needs to be noted that Ukraine's ambition to join NATO was among the reasons that led to the full-fledged Russian invasion in 2022. For Russia, this is unacceptable, as a country sharing a long border with it becoming a US-led military alliance member is particularly threatening. With US military bases and British fighter aircraft in abundance all over Ukraine, potential membership could thus fundamentally alter Russia's military-security environment in its own backyard.

However, there is no doubt that Russia needs time to recover from the heavy blows it suffered at the hands of the Ukrainian military. Once its rebuild reaches a satisfactory level, the test of NATO's resolve may begin in a few years' time, the CNN report claimed. The US media outlet reportedly spoke to three US intelligence personnel familiar with the matter.

Trump's warning daring Russia to test waters?

Interestingly, Donald Trump in 2024 declared that during a conversation with the leader of a NATO member, he openly clarified that US forces would not come to their aid if NATO defence-spending expectations were not met. “No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want,” was reportedly Trump's reaction when the other leader mentioned a potential confrontation with Russia.

Meanwhile, the US Senate voted overwhelmingly to approve a bill to punish Russia and key buyers of its petroleum products, such as China and India, claiming that such trade helps fuel the Ukraine war. The bill, renamed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, was approved by the Senate by an 86-11 vote. It allows President Donald Trump to impose 100 per cent tariffs on goods from countries that are among the top five importers of Russian oil and gas.