With the foreign ministers of the QUAD countries meeting in New Delhi on May 26, it is becoming more apparent that the grouping is getting to be more about economics than a military one.
On Tuesday, the meeting will be held between Indian foreign minister Dr S Jaishankar and his counterparts, US Secretary of State Maroc Rubio, Australian foreign minister Penny Wong and Japan’s foreign minister Toshimitsu Motegi.
Global geopolitical developments like the US being caught in a disadvantageous position on the Iran war front have forced the grouping that began with a distinct anti-China character to one that is shedding its military dimension and is focused more on trade and other cooperation aspects.
The thawing of ice-cold India-China relations and recent US overtures towards Beijing have played a major role in this changing approach.
The QUAD—short for Quadrilateral Security Dialogue—began with a stated commitment to a “free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific” as well as a “rules-based international order”—euphemisms that China thinks are directed against it.
Established in 2007 and again being revived in 2017 after a period of dormancy, QUAD comprises India, the US, Australia and Japan.
Truth be told, QUAD’s military aspect was never overtly stated. Instead, its stated focus was on expanding maritime law enforcement cooperation to support efforts to curtail illicit maritime activity, including piracy, drug trafficking, infringements on border security, and illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing, besides humanitarian and disaster mitigation efforts.
But China was never entirely convinced. At one time, it even labelled the QUAD a “mini-NATO”.
QUAD suffered from a structural defect. Its fortunes swung depending on the extent to which it was favoured or disfavoured by the US President. It also depended on the POTUS to what extent the military agenda was to be espoused.
In his first term, US President Donald Trump began on a bellicose note on QUAD and then struck a conciliatory tone in his second term.
While the US had roped in India to checkmate the Chinese in their own backyard, the growing military asymmetry between China and the other countries, including India, may have forced the US to rethink the QUAD positioning.
The very fact that President Donald Trump visited Beijing for a summit-level meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on May 13-15, hoping for a proactive Chinese role to convince Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz, would have accorded the US a face-saving exit from Iran.
Again, that was not to be. The Beijing Summit only elevated China’s standing and brought it to the same level as the US, with China refusing to play ball.
On a separate note, a US-China rapprochement would reduce India’s strategic importance.
