US President Donald Trump will embark on a three-day trip to China, his second state visit, on Wednesday for a highly anticipated summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The visit comes at a time when Trump is facing scrutiny for the Iranian conflict, domestic issues and economic war with China.
The summit, which has been delayed due to the Iran conflict, is expected to see the two superpowers deliberate on the Iran war, with China vying to step in as a mediator. Beijing reportedly was instrumental in presenting the five-point plan, which called for an immediate end to the war. Experts believe Trump also wants Chinese intervention in the issue, considering that Beijing is a close ally of Tehran. “Trump kind of needs China more than China needs him," said Alejandro Reyes, a professor specialising in Chinese foreign policy at the University of Hong Kong, to Reuters. “He needs a kind of foreign policy victory: a victory that shows that he is looking to ensure stability in the world and that he's not just disrupting global politics," Reyes added.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio too conveyed how China could aid in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. "I hope the Chinese tell him what he needs to be told," Rubio told last week. "And that is what you are doing in the Strait, which is causing you to be globally isolated. You're the bad guy in this."
This, experts say, makes it clear that the US recognises China is going to play a major role in bringing Iran back to the negotiation table.
Trade war
The summit will address the elephant in the room: the trade war between the two countries. While pragmatic deals between Beijing and Washington are likely, especially announcements on Boeing jets, agricultural products, energy deals, rare earth supply stability, and cooperation on fentanyl, the major bone of contention will be the tariff. China’s trade surplus last year reached a record $1.2tn, with the biggest buyer being the US.
China is seeking to extend the current trade truce, but ever since the tariff war, which has been stalled since Trump suspended triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods and Xi backed away from choking global supplies of rare earths, China has been prepared to take on Washington. While the extension of the truce agreed in South Korea is likely, analysts don’t expect a major breakthrough on a trade deal.
But Trump is likely to push Beijing to purchase Chinese agricultural goods, and China is likely to ask the US to drop a recently announced trade probe into unfair business practices.
Taiwan
Another major issue is the question of Taiwan, especially in the context of the US Congress approving an $11bn arms sale package to Taiwan, a self-governing island that Beijing claims as part of its territory. Though it has been stalled, Beijing would want it cancelled. China has made it clear that Taiwan would be a priority in these talks and that it hoped that the US would make the "right choices". It would also appreciate any stance from Trump which suggests the US opposes Taiwan independence.