BNP and its 10 party allies have won Bangladesh’s 13th Parliamentary elections with a thumping majority. While the party alone got 209 seats, its main contender, Bangladesh Jamaat Islami, received 68 seats, and NCP got 6 seats. Not just the BNP has to navigate the bourgeoning expectations of the youth voters, but it has to complete the constitutional reforms in the next 180 days after it assumes office. It has the hard task to balance the complex and competing geopolitical interests of external players while following the much vaunted Bangladesh first policy.
Resetting its ties with India will remain crucial for the two countries.
For India, BNP’s victory promises a stable and accountable government, unlike the interim regime, which was driven by several interests.
India expects the BNP government under Tarique Rahman’s leadership to move away from the antagonistic approach that the interim regime adopted. Even if it does not reach the level of relationship that India shared during the Awami League period, it should be a relationship based on mutual trust. Some Indian analysts think BNP’s return may have a long-term impact on India’s security, given the party’s track record of sheltering insurgents from India’s north east and the fact that ten truckloads of arms had landed in a Jetty in Chittagong owned by a Minister from the party.
There were instances of prominent ministers of the BNP regime having links with the JMJB militant groups in Bangladesh. However, some believe that Tarique Rahman 2.0 would not be a repetition of the past. Rather, his years in exile would have a sobering effect on his politics. His speeches and statements during the election rallies indeed indicate a change and a promise of clean politics.
Security of the northeast remains extremely crucial for India. Insurgency in the northeast has been a major source of instability in the past. It would not be in the best interest of the region for the prevailing peace to be disturbed, as this would affect India's economic initiatives.
New Delhi has announced several connectivity projects linking the northeast to the nearest ports to help the region's progress. In this context, it will watch Rahman’s regime closely. India watched with concern when Pakistani citizens were given visas without security clearance during the interim regime. India, which is a victim of cross-border terrorism emanating from Pakistan, would not like a similar situation on its Eastern border.
Over the period of time, India has built a robust security cooperation with Bangladesh by instituting joint exercises, joint coordinated patrols between border guards and coast guards, HADR exercises and an annual defence dialogue. There have been high-level exchanges between the militaries of the two countries, and they have celebrated 'Victory Day' together.
While the military-to-military relationship between Bangladesh and India came to a halt, there were flourishing ties with Pakistan, signalling that Dhaka is ready to put a cost on India when it instituted military staff level talks. There were visits by the Pakistan Navy Chief and the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee. The trilateral meeting between the foreign secretaries of Pakistan, China and Bangladesh raised eyebrows in India.
The fact that the two countries share a porous border, which has emerged as a major conduit for yaba tablets and human trafficking, would emerge as a challenge. In the past, the party has given assurances to India that it will not take a step that would undermine India’s security, and its connectivity projects will not be stopped. Therefore, BNP‘s win signals a more stable relationship.
Smruti Pattanaik is a research fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of THE WEEK.