As Geneva in Switzerland braces to host the Ukraine-Russia peace talks, the second round of talks after the US-brokered negotiations held in the UAE in January and early February, all eyes are on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nominee to lead the negotiation team.
The Russian delegation underwent a makeover for the second round and has been expanded to 20 people. It will also mark the return of Vladimir Medinsky as leader of the delegation. Medinsky is a close aide of Vladimir Putin, and his return as the chief negotiator has raised eyebrows, with political analysts saying the Kremlin is planning to tighten its position by sending its trump card to helm the talks.
Russia’s official position on sending Medinsky is that he still retains the position of head of the Russian negotiating team. According to Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov, this decision is connected with a broader range of issues planned to be raised in Switzerland. “Medinsky was absent from the meetings in the UAE because they were devoted to security issues under the military's jurisdiction,” Peskov said.
Expectedly, Ukraine is shocked by Vladimir Medinsky's return to the leadership of the Ukraine negotiating group. According to RBC-Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called Moscow's decision to "change the leader of its negotiating team" a surprise. He argued that by doing so, the Russian side "wants to postpone a decision."
There was careful planning to it. According to Russian political scientist and director of the Institute of Contemporary State Development Dmitry Solonnikov, “If he wasn't in Abu Dhabi,” the political scientist added, “it was only because purely technical discussions were underway there: how to stop the fighting, disengage troops, and ensure the safety of observers.”
“It was an attempt to put the cart before the horse – to discuss the technical details of peace before an agreement in principle had been reached. Changing the composition of the delegation most likely means changing the subject of the negotiations. The agreement will be discussed now. Not the technical issues of when peace will come, but the question of whether peace will come at all, and if so, under what rules. The rules will be discussed," Solonnikov explained.
However, there are others like Moldovan political scientist Alexander Korinenko who believe there is no specific “hardening of Moscow's position” with the arrival of Medinsky.
"In my opinion, there's no point in talking about either softening or hardening any positions. Different negotiators are needed to solve different problems. And this approach is logical," RIA Novosti quotes the expert as saying.
In his assessment, the choice of specific negotiators is always determined by the specific tasks facing them, and this approach on the part of Moscow appears entirely rational.
Korinenko also recalled that Russia has repeatedly expressed its desire to address the root causes of the conflict. "Therefore, Medinsky is going for strategic purposes—to discuss and address the root causes. In other words, he is the person who will essentially be building the security architecture, and only then will the military resolve tactical issues on the ground," the political scientist explained.