Thirty-three years after the signing of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at the Rio Earth Summit, and a decade since the landmark Paris Agreement, a global accord signed in 2015 by nearly 200 nations to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the world’s nations have reconvened in Brazil to confront the widening gap between climate ambition and reality. This time, the city of Belém has become the epicenter of global climate diplomacy as the annual Conference of the Parties (COP), now in its 30th iteration, is being held there.
COP30 unfolds amid intensifying ecological urgency and geopolitical turbulence. Brazil, holding the rotating presidency, has chosen to return the summit to its symbolic roots, hosting it in the Amazon to spotlight the world’s forests, which remain under siege from logging, mining, agriculture, and fossil fuel extraction. The country has urged participants to focus not on new pledges, but on fulfilling past commitments, especially those made at COP28 to phase out fossil fuels.
Tropical forests forever facility
One of the most significant developments at COP30 is the launch of the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), a bold initiative led by Brazil to channel large-scale finance into forest conservation. Endorsed by 53 countries, including 34 tropical forest nations representing over 90 per cent of the world’s tropical forests, the TFFF aims to reward countries for preserving forest cover through performance-based payments verified by satellite monitoring.
The facility is structured around two pillars: a secretariat (TFFF) and an investment arm, the Tropical Forest Investment Fund (TFIF). The TFIF will invest sponsor contributions in sustainable assets, excluding fossil fuels and deforestation-linked sectors. Returns will be used to repay investors and fund conservation efforts, with at least 20 per cent earmarked for Indigenous peoples and local communities, recognising their vital role in forest stewardship.
Norway has pledged $3 billion over the next decade, while Brazil and Indonesia reaffirmed commitments of $1 billion each. France, China, and the UAE have expressed political support, though financial contributions remain pending. India, despite being a tropical forest nation, has yet to formally endorse the initiative.
Global positions: Shifting leadership and fractured consensus
Immediately upon taking office, President Donald Trump announced that the US would exit the landmark Paris Agreement, dismissing it as a costly burden on American industry and sovereignty. The withdrawal, scheduled to take effect in January 2026, marked a dramatic reversal of US climate leadership. In a speech that drew widespread condemnation at the United Nations General Assembly last month, Trump declared climate change “the world’s greatest con job,” accusing other nations of “setting climate policies that have cost their countries fortunes.”
This combative stance has shaped the US role, or lack thereof, at COP30 in Belém. Beyond its withdrawal from the Paris framework, the Trump administration has actively undermined international efforts to address environmental crises. Earlier this year, during negotiations for a global treaty to curb plastic pollution, US officials pressured other countries to reject proposals that would cap plastic production.
In October, the administration escalated its tactics by threatening visa restrictions and economic sanctions against nations supporting a UN shipping agency plan to impose a global carbon price on ocean freight. These threats led the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to postpone the decision by a year, stalling progress on regulating one of the fastest-growing sources of greenhouse gas emissions.
In contrast, China and Brazil have stepped into the leadership vacuum, advocating for stronger climate finance and forest protection. The European Union, long a climate champion, faces internal discord. Despite ambitious CO₂-cutting policies, EU members failed to agree on a 2040 climate target until days before the summit. A compromise was reached to cut emissions 90 per cent from 1990 levels by 2040, though with flexibilities that may dilute its impact.
India, led by Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav, has positioned itself as a voice for developing nations. At the pre-COP meeting in Brasília, Yadav called for COP30 to be the “COP of Adaptation,” emphasising the need for predictable, grant-based funding for adaptation and loss and damage. India insists that new processes must not undermine the Paris Agreement’s framework and that trust can only be restored if developed nations honor their past commitments.
From Baku to Belém: The climate finance challenge
COP30 builds on the outcomes of COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, where negotiations yielded a pledge to mobilise $300 billion annually by 2035 for climate finance in developing nations. While a step forward, this figure remains far below the $1 trillion experts deem necessary. The Belém summit seeks to operationalise these commitments, with a focus on accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to renewables and delivering on the promises made in Baku.
Yet, the path is riddled with obstacles. Economic uncertainty, energy security concerns, and political resistance continue to hamper progress. Only a third of countries have submitted updated emission-reduction strategies ahead of COP30, despite expectations under the Paris Agreement. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has acknowledged that temporarily overshooting the 1.5°C target now appears inevitable.
As COP30 progresses, the first week has seen negotiators laying out priorities and gauging positions. Themes are emerging, and countries and corporations are unveiling action plans and financial pledges. The second week will bring national ministers to the table to finalise decisions, with the two-day Leaders’ Summit setting the political tone. Brazil’s insistence on accountability over ambition has reframed the summit’s ethos. The emphasis is on realising past promises, protecting vulnerable ecosystems, and empowering communities on the frontlines of climate change.
Vaishali Basu Sharma is a security and economic affairs analyst.
