Prime Minister Narendra Modi has arrived in China for the two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit that will begin on Sunday. The landmark visit, happening almost seven years ago, will see him meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Tianjin. Modi’s visit has assumed global significance in view of the sudden downturn in India-US ties triggered by Trump’s tariffs.
This also comes amid a thaw in India-China relations, characterised by restoring peace along the border, easing of visa restrictions for Chinese in India, and restarting of direct flights between the two countries. The visit by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to India added momentum to the relations between the foes.
But, despite the optics of Modi with Xi and the messaging it would give to the Trump administration, many feel it is unlikely that Xi would be reluctant to give much limelight to Modi. Reason: Beijing could see the visit as an opportunity to teach India a lesson. “It’s possible that Xi Jinping will have a side meeting with Modi, but I don’t think the Chinese will be highlighting the Indian presence,” Stimson Centre’s Yun Sun as quoted by Financial Times.
Many share a similar sentiment. According to Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi, the timing of Modi’s China visit could hardly be worse after Trump’s tariffs and China’s recent military support for Pakistan. ”Modi would be seen as travelling to China with a weakened hand as he seeks rapprochement” with Xi,” he told FT.
Chinese state media Global Times also struck a cautious tone, downplaying the impending meeting and chances for a sudden warmth. It highlighted Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun’s statement welcoming Modi to China, but went on to quote Qian Feng, director of the research department at the National Strategy Institute at Tsinghua University, who said, “India continues to maintain a balanced approach among major powers to maximise geopolitical and economic benefits.”
The report also quoted statements from PM Modi’s Japan visit that “Japan and India are to express serious concern over the situation in the East and South China Seas amid China's maritime expansion. “Practical steps such as direct flights, visa facilitation, and cultural exchanges align with the current state of China-India relations,” Qian was quoted by Global Times.
Despite all the perception of “dragon-elephant tango”, there is too much history between the country for an instant thaw in relations. Since the first time conflict in 1961, the mutual distrust has only deepened, and the economic disparity and US intervention hasn’t helped. Then there is China’s overt support to Pakistan, which many watchers feel is “unlikely that the dragon and the elephant will dance together”. They believe New Delhi is just using its relationship with China to hedge against the strategic risks of the United States to a certain extent.
“The issues at stake in the China-India relationship, just frankly, are very hard for India to resolve, whether on the nationally sensitive border issues, or the various potential domestic flash points when it comes to trade and economic matters,” according to Alyssa Ayres of the Council of Foreign Relations.