US President Donald Trump’s sudden rapparochement to Pakistan has sent geopolitical analysts into a tizzy. The US, which has ignored Pakistan after the Afghanistan withdrawal, is suddenly courting the embattled nation, inviting its Army Chief, Asim Munir, to the US for the second time in two months. All this while Trump slapped a brutal 50 per cent tariff on India.
Experts think Pakistan’s current situation with the US was the result of a stunning diplomatic maneuver, which saw Islamabad pandering to Trump's “concession-seeking, deal-loving personality” and the signing of cryptocurrency deals and permitting US companies to invest in the mining sector. The Pakistani generals focused on counterterrorism cooperation, connections with figures close to Trump, and agreements in the fields of energy, minerals, and cryptocurrencies to woo Trump, according to a report that appeared in the Financial Times.
Pakistan also gave Trump a Nobel Prize nomination, along with success stories in counter-terrorism that he could tout on the world stage.
That said, many believe Trump’s newfound love for Pakistan could always be a ruse to bring India to the negotiation table. There is a possibility that Trump could return to his hardline stance against Pakistan if he fails to gain anything significant out of the deals. Most of Pakistan's natural resources are unproven or in unstable areas that have seen more than 2,000 deaths in insurgency last year. The country's economy is also dependent on a $7 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund.
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Husain Haqqani, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the US, believes that Trump is using the “Pakistan card” to pressure India and bring it to the negotiating table. Former Pakistani government adviser Husain Nadeem also believes that overpromising to Trump could ultimately lead to his turning against Islamabad. Pakistan should be cautious of the Trump administration’s fluctuations and protect its interests and dignity, former Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi believes.
Many experts also urge Pakistan to be wary of being over-reliant on personal relationships with a president, especially one like Trump, who is one of the most unpredictable politicians in American history. History has proved that US foreign policy, especially towards South Asian countries, is dependent on domestic considerations and sudden shifts in priorities. If Pakistan does not turn this golden moment into a lasting asset, it may once again find itself an outcast, analysts warn.
