A sea of yellow flooded Sao Paulo's iconic Avenida Paulista, one of the world’s great streets, in a show of force for the embattled Jair Bolsonaro, former president of Brazil, who is facing criminal investigations and banned from leaving the country or running for office.
Defiant as ever, Bolsonaro climbed atop a semitruck, took the stage before his impassioned supporters and portrayed himself as a crusader under attack, the victim of a leftist witch hunt. "I have been stabbed in the heart for giving freedom to Brazilians," proclaimed Bolsonaro. He was both messiah and martyr.
The grand avenue in Latin America’s greatest city was electric with excitement as thousands of supporters rallied behind him, despite being under investigation for attempting a coup after his election loss in 2022.
Most revealing, however, was that Bolsonaro managed to rally an impressive crowd (size estimates range from 185,000 to 750,000) despite having been politically quiet in opposition and mostly absent from the media, except for reports of the crimes for which he is being investigated.
Sao Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas framed the happening saying it shows Bolsonaro represents "a movement in defense of freedom, the homeland and family." The crowd and the movement did unveil a Bolsonaro bigger than the former president himself, a dormant political force reinvigorated at the rally.
"There is no point in softening speech or acting like a victim," responded on X Gleisi Hoffman, president of Lula’s governing Workers’ Party. "Brazil and the world know Jair Bolsonaro's anti-democratic, dictatorial and fascist record. It remains and will always be a threat to democracy, the rule of law and peace."
Shifting criminal issues to the political spectrum is Trump’s innovation that Bolsonaro sought to replicate during the rally, recasting his legal woes as a political holy war, a formula that is paying off for the former U.S. president, indicted on 91 criminal charges.
On stage in Sao Paulo, the theatre of war took shape. Bolsonaro waved an Israeli flag while proclaiming Brazil's solidarity against "abortionists" and "criminals" – an incendiary brew evoking Trump's own formula for demonising enemies and sanctifying supporters.
In the South American cauldron, however, it took on the air of a regional Holy War, with Argentinian far-right president Javier Milei using X, the former Twitter, to put the images into words and amplify the message.
Fresh from Trump’s side at the Washington CPAC conservative political gathering that also featured El Salvador’s Bukele and Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo, Milei reposted videos commenting about "Lula's authoritarianism" and the "persecution of the opposition." Alongside a video of Bolsonaro holding the Israeli flag, Milei’s text says: "Lula is pro-Hamas. Bolsonaro is pro-Israel. End."
The response from Lula’s political party chief, Hoffman, was swift: "Talking about a dictatorship in Brazil is completely irresponsible, even more serious if it is reproduced by the president of a neighboring country, friend and business partner. Milei should first take care of solving the serious problems of the people of Argentina. He was elected for this, but he prefers to offend Lula..."
This good-versus-evil zealotry frames Bolsonaro as the martyred messiah of a spiritual revolution. By recasting the rule of law as oppression, he hopes to amass an army of the outraged. Bolsonaro is facing other scandals and criminal probes as well, but his reinvigorated followers remained fervent.
It was a demonstration of force carrying heavy symbolism, showing that Bolsonaro remains a commanding figure in the opposition, that he has a base of support in electors and in elected office, four sitting state governors and a number of other politicians in attendance.
Supporters of the Brazil's former president Jair Bolsonaro take part a protest in Paulista Avenue at Sao Paulo | Reuters
Sound familiar? It should. Bolsonaro is taking a page directly from the Trump playbook.
Like Trump, Bolsonaro is positioning himself as the victim of an unjust witch hunt, railing against the system despite serious allegations of criminal misconduct. He hopes to tap into his supporters' grievances and paint himself as their righteous defender.
It's a familiar refrain for the American right, but its export to Brazil shows the global appeal of Trump's woe-is-me victim complex. And Bolsonaro, seen by many as a more pitiful figure, can play the martyr card convincingly.
He called for amnesty for January 8 rioters attacking Brazil's institutions of democracy, mirroring Trump's defense of those who stormed the U.S. Capitol. January 6th, two years earlier.
To loyal supporters, Bolsonaro, like Trump in the U.S., represents everything under threat – traditional faith, law and order, conservative values. He is now out to cast himself as their champion against dangerous cultural change, leveraging their devotion as armor, casting the criminal probes against him as political persecution by radical elites.
The event was remarkable, however, in that it counted with the presence of members of parties that are even part of President Lula’s coalition. By claiming bias and injustice like Trump, Bolsonaro seeks to energise his aggrieved base to rally behind them.
Outrage outweighs evidence in the United States. Bolsonaro is betting Brazil will follow that lead.
For Bolsonaro, this reality-distorting strategy presents a possible shield from accountability for grave charges like inciting an insurrection. He dismisses the allegations as score-settling by the leftist regime that defeated him.
In this narrative, the prosecutors are radical usurpers, the probe is a sham, the courts are rigged against him. It’s the same tune sung by Trump, who is on the way to escaping consequences by decrying political persecution and obtaining re-election, a result which, in the U.S., would give him the power to absolve himself from accountability.
Welcome to the gospel of grievance.
Rewriting Reality, Bolsonaro-Style
Bolsonaro’s new victim persona blends his trademark audacity with lessons learned from Trump’s defiance. Where Trump carps about a partisan "deep state," Bolsonaro is alleging Brazil’s entire government is corrupt and illegitimate.
It is worth to note that Trump stops at nothing to smear and pressure prosecutors, floating wild conspiracy theories to exhaust the public and breed confusion. This scorched-earth approach intends to contaminate the probe itself, until the very idea of truth becomes relative.
Under the fog of false narratives, Bolsonaro is setting up a public opinion where fatigue and uncertainty could win out.
Another page from Trump’s book is claiming that the investigation drags on obsessively despite his innocence. Bolsonaro is already alleging authorities are unfairly fixated on hounding him without cause.
This jiu-jitsu tactic puts prosecutors on the defensive to justify still probing him. The longer it lasts, the more Bolsonaro can sell it as persecution. Why won’t they leave this attacked, blameless patriot alone?
In doing so at the Sao Paulo rally, however, Bolsonaro may have committed a serious legal error. While claiming that his jailed supporters who participated in the January 8 attacks on the country’s centers of power deserve amnesty, he, in essence, admitted that they committed heinous illegal acts but that other such actors received in the past: A legal admission likely to have serious repercussions in court.
It was also a self-serving statement, however; as the chief insurrectionist or architect of the planned coup d’etat, such amnesty would also apply to him. As forewarned by the surrender of his passport, an arrest of the former president is likely.
With Trump running circles around justice, Bolsonaro’s approach may seek to beat the rap too by attacking the refs and energising his base. But Brazil’s institutions may hold better under political pressure than their U.S. counterparts that are showing signs of capitulation to Trump political power.
However, with the large, well-organised rally, and his ability to mobilise deeply loyal people in such numbers, Bolsonaro has shown that he is the force of Brazil's opposition and an enduring influence in the country’s politics and the region.
The Sunday event may mark the start of Bolsonaro's reinvention from authoritarian to persecuted patriot though he may yet come under arrest. Nonetheless, taking lessons from Trump's playbook shows that despite his anti-democratic actions, he plans to fight his charges not in court, but in the media, and at the ballot box.
