Is Israel dithering on a full frontal offensive in Gaza?

Ten days after the blitzkrieg assault by Hamas militants from the narrow Gaza Strip on Israel from land, sea and air, Tel Aviv has been issuing threats of mounting a pulverising operation in Gaza, but is yet to embark on one.

It is because Israel faces a daunting task in deciding the time and form of offensive it would mount even as there has been an increase in skirmishes with the Hezbollah group in the north on Sunday and Monday morning.

While there were indications of preparations for a no-holds-barred Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) offensive amid mobilisation of soldiers, reservists, tanks and other armour, what would hold them back would be the presence of around 199 hostages believed to be positioned by the Hamas in ‘human shield’ positions.

By mobilising its forces, the IDF is largely following a classical military strategy of conducting heavy bombardment of Gaza with targeted aircraft strikes and artillery fire by 150 mm guns, before ground forces actually move in.

What will determine Israeli operational tactics in Gaza Strip and elsewhere is the difficult and challenging battlefield in case the IDF crosses over to the Hamas-controlled area.

Gaza is a very densely populated area with big urban concentrations. Moreover, the entire area sits above tunnels that have been in the making for long—since 1999.

In Gaza, it would be an urban guerilla battle both above in the city and townships and in the intricate network of tunnels underground—some more than 200 feet below.

It would be guerilla warfare that is best fought by highly mobile small infantry units with light weapons. However, this is one area where the Hamas militants would have an upper hand as they would be significantly be more familiar with the urban terrain and tunnel network than the IDF.

Well-lighted and ventilated, the tunnels are well-concealed and camouflaged from drones and satellites. They are the operational bases of the Hamas fighters, the storehouses of ammunition and war-like equipment, weapons, jail to keep hostages, and act as entry and exit points.

Another aspect that Israel may be apprehensive about is the possibility of new fronts opening up—especially in the West Bank and the Golan Heights—which will open up chances of interference by foreign nations like Iran and Syria.

Therefore, with its forces mobilised near the Gaza Strip, Israel’s endeavour would be to not open up new fronts.

The military strategy would undoubtedly be influenced by the latest positioning by Iran and China. While Iran is asserting that the Israel-Hamas conflict could expand geographically into a multi-front conflict, China—slipping into a mediating role—had its foreign minister Wang Yi saying on Saturday that Israel’s military action in Gaza has gone “beyond the scope of self-defence.”