Did Iran greenlight the Hamas attack? Israel, US have little evidence to back up claims

Right after the over 1,000 Hamas gunmen stormed into Israel's borders on Saturday, the geo-political equations in the Middle East changed, probably forever. While it threw cold water on America's hope to bring peace in the Middle East so it could divert its attention elsewhere, it also slowed down or killed forever the Israeli-Saudi deal, which was on the horizon. The much-anticipated peace deal is unlikely to materialise anytime soon, considering the widespread deaths Gaza witnessed over the last three days. 

Nobody benefits from the situation, neither Israel nor Hamas. But, many regional analysts like Thomas Friedman believe the only beneficiary of the disastrous event could be Iran. Reason: The Israeli-Saudi deal could have isolated Iran, Hamas’s patron, and slowly shifted the power balance in favour of the Palestinian Authority, a more moderate group than Hamas. 

With fingers pointing at Iran, questions arise about what role Iran could have played in the daring attack carried out by Hamas. Was Iran's leadership aware of the impending attack? 

Many in the power circles of Israel believe Iran had a role. Maj. Nir Dinar, a spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces, told POLITICO that they are 100 per cent sure that the Iranians were not surprised. "Just because you don’t have that evidence doesn’t necessarily mean Iran isn’t behind it," he added.

A report by The Wall Street Journal said officials from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had partnered with Hamas since August to prepare for the breach of Israel's borders. The outlet cited unnamed senior members of Hamas and the Lebanese group Hezbollah as saying the IRGC during a meeting last Monday in Beirut "gave the green light" for the attack.

The report added that the IRGC’s broader plan is to create a multi-front threat that can strangle Israel from all sides—Hezbollah and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine in the north and Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank. 

But, so far there is no evidence of the Iranian role. "In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack, but there is certainly a long relationship," US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday on CNN.

Not just the US, even Israel has no evidence to back up claims that Iran was involved. The Israeli Defence Force (IDF) said there was no evidence yet of Iran’s role. "Iran is a major player but we can’t yet say if it was involved in the planning or training," said IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari.

Iran rubbished suggestions that it was involved in the attacks. "We emphatically stand in unflinching support of Palestine; however, we are not involved in Palestine's response, as it is taken solely by Palestine itself," Iran's UN mission said, according to Reuters' translation. 

Senior Hamas official Ali Baraka too asserted that Iran was not given a heads up before the Friday morning attack was launched. "It was a surprise to everyone, including Iran," Baraka told reporters. 

However, analysts believe things are playing out just like how Iran would have wanted. One of the Iran regime's main principles is anti-American imperialism and anti-Israeli Zionism. According to Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East analyst at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies in Washington, Hamas may have lashed out due to a sense that it was facing irrelevance as efforts advanced toward broader Israeli-Arab relations. "As Hamas watched the Israelis and Saudis move close to an agreement, they decided: no seat at the table? Poison the meal," she told Reuters.

The Israeli-Saudi normalisation would represent a victory for the U.S. diplomatic efforts, which Iran hated and was vocal about. Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei had hit out at Arab states for signing the Abraham Accords, accusing them of "treason against the global Islamic community."

All possible outcomes of the current escalation will be in favour of Iran, according to a report by The Conversation. Israel unleashing havoc on Gaza could push away Saudi Arabia and other Arab states from normalising relations. Israel's ruthless quelling of the Palestinian uprising could incite further uprising in East Jerusalem or the West Bank, leading to a more widespread Israeli response and greater instability, the report added.