Brazil presidential polls: Here's what is at stake for the country and the region

On the eve of Brazil's presidential election, the largest economy in Latin America and the seventh most populous country in the world is marinating in a stew of unfounded accusations that closely resemble Trump's failed recipe for remaining in power after losing an election that divided a nation. There is a lot more at stake than who wins the election.

As 156 million Brazilians go to the polls Sunday, the future of democracy itself and the stability of the entire region are at play, say Human Rights Watch and other organizations.

Beyond who wins the election is the question of whether the loser will accept the results. One candidate, far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, has for months been impeaching the country’s voting systems with the same kind of vacant 'evidence' former US Attorney General William Barr once gave in a CNN interview: "common sense" tells you there could be a fraud.

Barr spoke as if that should suffice, and so does Bolsonaro. Many fear that it is a set-up to blame the system for fraud if he loses, and he has already said he won’t leave the presidency if there is vote fraud. "Only God will remove me...the army is on our side; it’s an army that does not accept corruption, does not accept fraud."

An electronic voting system has been in use in Brazil for more than two decades and there have not been previous accusations of widespread fraud.

Bolsonaro has been trailing in polls behind former leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for months and election-eve aggregated polling data numbers put that margin at 50% for Lula and Bolsonaro hovering around 37% in an 11-candidate race. However, with 11% of the population still undecided, who wins the presidency is in their hands. If no candidate receives 50% of the vote, there will be a runoff on October 30.

Fireworks and low-blows erupted in the last presidential debate held Thursday with Bolsonaro brandishing an aggressive and combative tone, calling Lula the "gang leader" of a government that was "really a kleptocracy," and referred to him as "the ex-convict."

Lula who spent time in prison on corruption charges had his conviction reversed when the Supreme Court determined the charges were politically biased. For his part, he brought up a series of the president’s scandals including the partial-or-all-cash purchases of some 51 Bolsonaro family properties; combatively Lula also fired back that he has been absolved in 26 processes of corruption.

"There is no corruption in my government," responded Bolsonaro, who accused Lula of lying. "President, when you show up here, please lie less," said Lula.

By focusing on the low road, the campaigns distract from the real danger of what these bombastic rhetoric could add up to. The potential for not respecting the results and the groundwork has been set.

Bolsonaro’s assault on the credibility of the country’s democratic institutions and thus their weakening. It is also seen as prepping his enthusiastic followers to support a potential challenge to the election results; he has been telling supporters that results should be considered suspicious if he does not get "at least 60 per cent" of the votes.

On Wednesday, Bolsonaro’s party claimed without evidence that the voting system was vulnerable to actors with the "absolute power to manipulate election results without leaving a trace." Though an immediate response from the Electoral Court called the report "absurd" and began an immediate investigation, that now enters the realm of contested facts in the minds of those predisposed to believe it.

But those who only get their news from social media may be seeing an alternate reality online where disinformation spreads unchecked, and the most popular social posts boost the claims of potential voter fraud and a Bolsonaro victory. According to a report released by @agenciapublica, "the most interacted and shared posts on social media spread false information or predict victory for Jair Bolsonaro."

Echoes of Trump’s "We were getting ready to win this election; frankly, we did win this election"post-election declaration and the actions that followed leading to the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol are heard. Brazilians fear that could be Sunday’s reality.

Bolsonaro, a retired military officer who has often lavished praise on the country’s brutal military dictatorship that came to power in 1964, insists he will win outright on election day, and has claimed to have the army on his side, that the military will monitor the election, adding for good measure that it "does not accept fraud."

The volatile mix of bluster and similarities with the Trump election aftermath has stoked fears of violence in the country if results don’t go Bolsonaro’s way. A successful challenge to election results could result in a Latin American blueprint to challenge a wave of left-wing governments that have won elections from Colombia to Argentina and Chile, to Peru and Bolivia, and de-stabilize the region, turning its second "Pink Wave" into a perpetual battlefield of contested presidential power.

Lula appears to be cobbling together a broad coalition of grassroots opposition to Bolsonaro's right-wing bent. His support in Sunday’s election could include large sectors of some 5,000 to 7,000 social movements across the country organized for the elections, indigenous peoples, groups of women, trade unions, popular movements, intellectuals, artists, gender identity groups and others driven by a variety of concerns including protection of the Amazon, for women’s rights, human rights, gay rights, and anti-racism policies.

Lula’s supporters point to his record as president investing in education, culture, the arts, a successful Zero Hunger program, and reducing Amazon deforestation in a short two years after taking office.

Bolsonaro, for his part, draw support from Evangelicals, gun activists, anti-abortionists, those opposed to gender ideology and indigenous rights, and those fearful of Communism and not being allowed to believe in God. He also draws support from a gauntlet of special interest groups such as logging, mining, agro-businesses, and mega-corporations.

Bolsonaro has claimed "sovereignty" over the Amazon, rejecting foreign calls for its protection and anchored his position on poor "public relations" about the true status of the area. Despite the veracity of the poor public relations position, it fails to account for the devastating growth of deforestation during his presidency. His opponents point out that his disdain for environmental advocates has encouraged packs of lawless developers to run rampant destruction of the forest and of indigenous areas unimpeded by his government in a manner that no amount of public relations can mask.

During his term, Bolsonaro has gutted forest and indigenous protection, women’s rights and gay rights agencies to the delight of his base. Deforestation has reached a 15-year-high under his watch and the Amazon, perhaps the most important carbon absorber for planet Earth, has become a net releaser of more carbon into the atmosphere.

Because of the perceived threat to the country’s democracy and its potential effect on the entire region, and because the next president, who is elected for a four-year term, would control the direction of policies that will affect the environment, human rights, and the economy, there is a general feeling in Brazil that this is the most significant and consequential election in decades.

The 2022 election has a registered voter base of 156 million. Voting is compulsory for those who are literate and between the ages of 18-70. Those as young as 16 and others may also vote at will. The ballot will also elect governors in all of Brazil’s 26 states and the Federal District that houses the capital Brasilia.

Polls close at 5 pm Brasilia time. 

There is a wide expectation among Brazilians of a Trump-like refusal to accept the results should Lula garner the 50% of votes needed to avoid a runoff.

In the past, election results were announced a few hours after the polls closed. So the question of whether the voter’s decision is accepted or contesting the election on grounds of unspecified voter fraud throws the country into destabilising turmoil would be answered before the day is over.

This week, the US senate, passed a resolution in support of democracy in Brazil. "It is important for the people of Brazil we are on their side, on the side of democracy," said the bill’s sponsor Senator Bernie Sanders in a direct rebuke to any potential Brazilian insurrection or coup stemming from challenged election results.