Imran Khan has struck again. Pervaiz Elahi—a candidate backed by him was sworn as Punjab chief minister deposing Hamza Sharif from the post following a Supreme Court ruling late last night. High on the stunning victory in the by-polls last week, Khan will be aiming for a bigger prize.
“I appreciate our SC judges for standing firm & upholding the Constitution & law, against all manner of threats & abuse. I want to thank Barrister Ali Zafar & his team. I want to thank the people of Punjab for coming out in unprecedented numbers in by- elections against rigging,'' tweeted Khan. The opposition, however, has dubbed it a “JUDICAL COUP'' as Maryam Nawaz Sharif tweeted. It is no secret that PML-N believes that the Supreme Court is soft on Khan and his party.
This is not the first constitutional crisis that has gripped the country. Khan's exit from Prime Minister in April—a saga that dragged on with high drama had to be resolved by the Supreme Court, again just before midnight. The current crisis was triggered by the Punjab by-elections. His party won 15 out of the 20 seats. Khan’s win ensured that the chief minister Hamza Shahbaz—the son of the prime minister—was poised to be unseated.
While Elahi has bagged the chief ministerial chair, there is trouble ahead. And Punjab, the biggest state in the country, is likely to see turbulence ahead. He was administered his oath by President as the Governor refused. So, Elahi flew from Lahore to Islamabad in a special flight to be sworn in. This friction is symptomatic of the relationship ahead. The numbers between the two parties are so slim that it is unlikely that will be a stable solution without a fresh mandate.
There is a lot at stake—beyond just the prize of Punjab. There is also the credibility of the Supreme Court. There is also the relevance of PML-N in Punjab—a state where they had so far been the undisputed rulers. The grand old party of Punjab is playing catch up with PTI’s social media savvy message. The election is very much for the PML-N to lose. If anything, the by-election has proved that Khan certainly has support on the ground in Punjab—a crucial state for numbers at the centre. In Khyber Pakhtunwa too, Khan is likely to make a sweep.
The by-elections—held in Punjab which had been so far dominated by the PML-N—have proven that Khan’s narrative works. The first one to realise that success, for politicians is not based on governance, but on perception. Ousted in April, has managed to only grow in power. Over the past few months, he has chosen to up the ante by commanding large anti-government rallies. He has mobilised the youth—the turnout for the elections has been 49.69 per cent.
It is clear by now that Khan will try to force early elections. He has been pushing for a fresh mandate since his ouster in April. He believes that he is riding a high. Especially as he has combined the corruption of his opponents with the anti-American rhetoric as a winning formula that has captured the minds of his supporters.
But there is also the other factor. The Army Chief General Bajwa is due to retire in November. The government may be holding on with determination but would want a shot at appointing the new man in charge. Khan, who has fallen out with Bajwa doesn’t want to let go of this opportunity either.
However, President Arif Alvi is now suggesting that the chief can be appointed before the deadline. “In my opinion, there is no harm in making the army chief's appointment ahead, Alvi has been quoted telling reporters. He has also suggested that the political uncertainty and economic situations in the country can be detrimental.
The political crisis apart, it is the economic situation that will be the key to stability. Pakistan is battling an economic crisis. The currency is falling against the dollar. The total debt liability is close to $53.5 trillion and there has been an electricity crisis. The IMF loan package of $7.2 billion has assured the government to take tough decisions including slashing subsidies. It is uncertain times ahead in Pakistan. But one thing is clear that Khan is here to stay.
