For Russia and China, it seems business as usual in Kabul. Both countries (also Iran and Pakistan) have kept their embassies open and are communicating regularly to Taliban representatives, although both countries are yet to recognise Taliban formally.
"China has all along maintained contact and communication with the Afghan Taliban on the basis of fully respecting Afghanistan's sovereignty and the will of all factions in the country, and played a constructive role in promoting the political settlement of the Afghan issue," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said on August 17.
Even the US seems to be acknowledging the ‘confluence’. The first nations the US reached out to after the collapse of Kabul are Russia and China. US Secretary of state Anthony Blinken reached out to the nations, with whom the US has had hot and cold relations with.
Blinken spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi separately. They discussed the situation and efforts to evacuate people safely Blinken and Lavrov also discussed Moscow’s connection with various Afghan political forces that are aimed at "helping ensure stability and public order."
The two "agreed to continue consultations with the participation of China, Pakistan and other interested nations to establish the right conditions to begin an inclusive inter-Afghan dialogue under the new conditions," a Russian foreign ministry statement said, an AFP report reads.
China on Monday said it wanted ‘friendly’ relationships with Afghanistan under the Taliban.
China wants to prevent Islamic radicalisation on its soil and needs Taliban’s to prevent a spillover of Islamic fundamentalism through Afghanistan’s northeasterrn borders. Beijing is currently under the radar of Western nations f or having incarcerated more than one million mostly Muslim people from the Uyghur and other minorities. China is also allied with Pakistan, known to be a supporter of Taliban. China also wants the Taliban to rein in the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM).
China is also worried about the security of its major infra projects under BRI (Belt and Road Initiative). Without an understanding with the Taliban, the BRI projects in the region, especially the CPEC ones, will be vulnerable to terrorist attacks. The Chinese media calls Afghanistan a ‘graveyard of fallen empires’. And while, China was wary of the US presence in Afghanistan, Beijing hopes to step into the vacuum the pullout has created. It is eyeing Afghanistan’s natural resources – its mineral wealth and hopes to secure strategic and economic interests. Given China’s history with India, Beijing views the Taliban as a valuable infrastructure and investment partner.
China and Pakistan have shared cordial relations. Engaging in friendly relationship with the Taliban would bring China and Pakistan closer together, while keeping the Indian influence out.
Keeping the US out is a priority for China and Russia. While the US presence kept Taliban and other organisations under check, both Russia and China have been uncomfortable about the US presence in their backyards. For their security planners, the American presence was a major strategic nightmare. For now, Russia stays put, but, Zamir Kabulov, Russian presidential envoy to Afghanistan had suggested that Russia would recognise the Taliban government based “on the behaviour of the new authorities”. The Taliban would view this as a big win. Russia, for long has been clear about its intention to fight terrorism. And despite naming the Taliban a terrorist group, Russia seems open to the idea of engaging with the Taliban so that militants do not launch assaults against its allies in Asia-- Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Last month, Russia carried military exercises with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. It also carried out military drills with China—a strong indication that Moscow remains determined in its fight against terrorism.
Also, China and Russia find the new Taliban more amenable and less radical (at least for now) and believe they can do business with it.
Plus, unlike in the 1990s, when Russia and Iran had joined hands with India to prop up the Northern Alliance against the Taliban, there are no influential rebel leaders to counter the Taliban this time. Moreover, the Taliban has already taken charge of the northern and other border areas and neutralised nearly all potential challengers.
--with inputs form Ajish P. Joy
