The doomsday scenario that US analysts were predicting was that Kabul would fall over the next 30 days, though the hope was that it would hold for at least 90. This, even as city after city was ceding to Taliban authority with scant resistance. Today, the enemy is at the gate, but is it indeed the enemy? The ease with which the Taliban has vanquished the legitimate defence forces of the Afghanistan government, which was trained by some of the best foreign armies, and which fought alongside the US and NATO troops for two decades, raises several questions. Especially when there are reports of the vanquished soldiers fleeing across the borders to neighbouring countries.
In Kabul, as per the latest reports, the two sides are keen on forging a `peaceful transition'. In a statement, the Taliban said it does not want to enter the capital fighting and that the transition process should be such that no one is harmed. Negotiations, it appears, have already started at the Presidential palace, even as there are reports that several leading Afghan officials like Mir Rahman Rehmani, speaker of the lower house or Wolesi Jirga have flown out to Pakistan. Others reportedly having escaped include Ata Mohammad Noor, Marshal Dostum and several leading officials of Balkh province. Kabul's acting interior minister Abdul Sattar Mirzakwal said that the transition will happen peacefully, thus accepting that there is no thought even of a token resistance anymore.
According to the Taliban, the most important prison at Baghram airfield has been captured and prisoners released and transferred to a safe place.
As the developments unravel, it does not seem as if the Taliban wants to incur the wrath of the leaving foreign forces by harming them. In fact, it has already been announced that diplomats will be safe, and even infrastructure developed for the benefit of the people of Afghanistan will not be damaged. However, the stage has come when no one is ready to believe anything of anyone.
The remaining Afghanistan brass is busy in talks with the diplomats, perhaps working out secure exits and refuge for people in these countries. The refugee crisis from Afghanistan has already begun hitting neighbouring countries like Pakistan and Uzbekistan, Most Afghans, however, do not have Pakistan as their first choice of refuge, bitter memories of past years in refugee camps still bring out the bile. However, while the connected and moneyed may be able to secure passage to destinations of choice, for the masses, Pakistan, with which the country shares the largest border, is the only option. On the western border is Iran, but given its own turmoil, it doesn't have appeal either. Turkey is the country for which most would like to head, even if only as a temporary place before they move further west.
India may not share a border with Afghanistan, but sources say that it would open up to shelter Afghans, especially those who have worked in coordination with India on the various projects India had across the provinces of Afghanistan as well as the embassy and consulate staff. After having shut its consulates, the embassy in Kabul is the only office open to process visas. India had granted refuge to over 300 people from the Hindu and Sikh communities in Afghanistan and is likely to continue helping in the evacuation of the remainder if they so seek.
India has only had a corner seat in the peace negotiations spearheaded by the international community. It was invited to attend the latest round of the talks at Doha last week, though did not get the invite to the troika plus -- the Russia-US-China-Pakistan grouping. With Kabul now being handed over to the Taliban, has the time for talks gone past? India has always maintained that it will only recognise the legitimate government of Afghanistan, elected by its people.
It is still too early to say whether the Taliban will be able to hold onto the gains it has made. Given however that the Afghan government has almost crumpled and that the US has already dusted the sand of Afghanistan from its back, will there even be a combined, or coalition kind of government? Afghan president Abdulla Ghani had made some noise about power-sharing a few days back, but even yesterday is a vastly different reality, given the speed of developments in the Hindukush. Recognition of the Taliban, however, is a matter for tomorrow. For today, it is how to stay alive in the country, or how to leave safely.
