Researchers say, in another 50 years, the population of the world will shrink by 2 million lower than UN projections. The global power alignments will be reshaped by the fertility rates and ageing populations.
By the end of the century, 183 of 195 countries—barring an influx of immigrants— will have fallen below the replacement threshold needed to maintain population levels, an international team of researchers reported in The Lancet, an AFP report reads.
Countries including Japan, Spain, Italy, Thailand, Portugal, South Korea and Poland will see their numbers diminish by at least half. China's will fall from 1.4 billion people today to 730 million in 80 years.
According to Christopher Murray, Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, this sharp decline in the population could mean good news for the environment.
Population in Sub-Saharan Africa will triple in size to some 3 billion people. Nigeria’s will expand to almost 800 million, second only to India’s 1.1 billion.
The working population in India and China, however, will decline, hurting economic growth. Around 2.37 billion people will be over 65 years old by then. The population of those above 80 will balloon increase from 140 million today to 866 million.
“By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China and the United States the dominant powers,” said Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of The Lancet describing the study as outlining “radical shifts in geopolitical power”.
Fertility decline will result in population shrinkage in the US, Australia and Canada.
Richard Horton goes on to say that, “Our analysis suggests that as women become more educated and have access to reproductive health services, they choose to have less than 1.5 children on average,” he said. “Continued global population growth through the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world’s population.”
