After the fatal events that marked the end of Second World War, a few former scientists, who worked for the Manhattan Project that paved way for the aforementioned fatal events, took it up on themselves to symbolically mark mankind’s vulnerability to a global catastrophe. The initiative took the metaphoric form of a clock, dubbed the ‘Doomsday Clock.’
The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the nonprofit organisation that maintains the Doomsday Clock, on January 23, unveiled the updated clock, signaling that the human race is closer to apocalypse than ever before.
Why? Because this year’s Doomsday Clock has been pegged at ‘100 seconds to midnight’, becoming the first time the universally recognised symbol is expressed in seconds. Last year, the bulletin set the Doomsday Clock at two minutes to midnight. The term ‘midnight’ is used metaphorically to signify the advent of a global catastrophe, which, according to the bulletin, could be catalyzed by two major factors- nuclear risk and climate change.
This year’s Doomsday Clock is an effort by the bulletin, a group of experts in science, technology and politics, to signify that the world is in a perilous path to destruction and catastrophe. Expressing the time in seconds for the first time is a move to address the world leaders and the public that the issues plaguing the world are graver than ever and have to be acknowledged without any delay. In their statement, the bulletin testified that the time on the Doomsday Clock is being expressed in seconds in order to “underscore the need for action.”
In its statement, the bulletin underlines two “existential dangers” for its move to set the clock at 100 seconds to midnight—worsening nuclear risk and climate change. Compounding these threats is another threat—cyber-enabled disinformation.
As far as nuclear risk is concerned, the bulletin deems the retreat of global superpowers and major stakeholders from arms treaties, intended to bring equilibrium to a highly volatile nuclear scenario, as a reason why the threat is more severe than before. The US’s withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal is being blamed by the bulletin as a step that could escalate into a possible nuclear confrontation, compounded by the US sanctions on Iran and Iran’s attempts to enrich its nuclear stockpile. In its statement, the bulletin also cites the US’s lackadaisical approach to extend the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), that limits the proliferation of US and Russia-deployed nuclear weapons and delivery systems, and the superpower’s faltering relations with the determinant North Korea as other key factors for a worsening nuclear landscape.
The bulletin’s statement explains that the worsening risk due to climate change is because of the growing government inaction in addressing the mounting issues related to the risk. While governments continue to make enthusiastic and supportive statements in the international fora, their commitment to the cause seems to be limited to the precincts of their statements. Such a governmental trend towards inaction has, therefore, resulted in mankind bearing the brunt of climate change, more severely than ever before, testified by a catastrophic wildfire in Australia and contradictory events of fatal heat waves and deluges in India. The precedents set by climate change conferences on curbing carbon emissions have been proven to not have many followers, as the bulletin testifies that carbon emissions and greenhouse gas levels are at an all-time high. Here too, the blame falls on world superpowers whose efforts to address climate change have only amounted to mere lip service.
The bulletin has added another factor to the list of possible catalysts of global catastrophe—cyber-based disinformation. In fact, the bulletin calls this a threat which has exacerbated existing threats such as nuclear risk and climate change. Such cyber-enabled campaigns like fake news and deepfake videos have had an unfavorable impact on the efforts by dedicated bodies to instill and foster peace in a disturbing atmosphere. Moreover, it has limited the capability of democracies, governments and citizens to respond to the issues the world is currently facing. The bulletin aptly quotes, “The use of cyber-enabled information warfare by countries, leaders, and sub-national groups of many stripes around the world exacerbates the enormous threats and endangers the information ecosystem that underpins democracy and civilization as we know it.”
Besides this, “disruptive technologies” are being attributed by the bulletin as to why it decided to move the Doomsday Clock even closer to 'midnight'. Countries have begun deploying AI-enabled machinery for military operations and combat. Moreover, there has been increased investment to develop hypersonic weapons, that could limit response time of targeted countries drastically, which the bulletin says could “create a dangerous degree of ambiguity and uncertainty.” Space could also become the new frontier for military research, development and combat, the latest development being the creation of a new US military service, the Space Force. The combined impact of the above mentioned threats by the bulletin could culminate in a global catastrophe, as testified by the updated Doomsday Clock.
In its list of steps that policymakers should take in order to improve the current state of affairs, the bulletin calls for the US and Russia to restart negotiations on arms treaties. It also requests the US and other signatories of the Iran Nuclear Deal to restrain nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and exhorts the world countries to adhere to goal set by the Paris Agreement.
Previously, the clock was closer to midnight twice, in 1953, when the US and Soviet Union tested thermonuclear weapons within a gap of six months, and in 2018, citing mounting nuclear risk and threat of climate change. The farthest the clock hand was from midnight was in 1991, when the US and Soviet Union signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), as the Cold War ended. The Doomsday Clock was set to 17 minutes to midnight, signaling a sense of peace and tranquility in a post-Cold War world.
Including the updated clock on January 23, the Doomsday Clock has been moved a total of 24 times since its introduction in 1947. The bulletin’s Science and Security Board decides what time is to be set, after long deliberations and consultations with experts on various fields, such as nuclear technology and climate science. The bulletin also seeks views from an expert panel of the bulletin’s board of sponsors, which includes 13 Nobel laureates.
