When world leaders gather in New York to address the United Nations General Assembly, Benjamin Netanyahu will be noted for his absence for the first time in a decade. After he failed to secure a majority in the Knesset elections held on September 16, the Israeli prime minister has opted to stay back in Jerusalem, fighting for his political survival.
Netanyahu may still find a way to hold on to power. After all, no one in Israel plays political games better than him. But he appears to be on the back foot this time, with his local as well as global allies not stepping up to help. A case in point is the reaction of US President Donald Trump, who wields enormous influence in Israel. Trump has been a staunch Netanyahu supporter. Netanyahu had put up billboards featuring him and Trump as part of his election campaign to trumpet his foreign policy credentials. There had been similar hoardings showing him with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But after his underwhelming electoral performance, the US president has not even called up Netanyahu, perhaps sensing the mood in Israel. Speaking to the press in Los Angeles on September 18, he disowned Netanyahu. “I have not spoken to him,” said Trump. “Look, our relationship is with Israel. We will see what happens.” It has not gone unnoticed in Israel, with many observers noting that Trump does not like to be associated with a “loser”.
In the run-up to the elections, things had looked so different for Netanyahu. He opted for another round of elections after he failed to stitch together a coalition following the elections held in April. Till then, he enjoyed solid backing from Trump, who had moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem last year. Just before the April elections, he recognised the Golan Heights as part of Israel, ignoring the Syrian claims. But as his campaign failed to take off, Netanyahu turned even shriller with his national security rhetoric. His announcement about annexing the Jordan Valley and all Israeli settlements in the West Bank just days before the elections showed his increasing levels of desperation. In the end, none of it worked for Netanyahu.
Because of its laws of proportional representation, no political party has ever won an outright majority in the 120-seat Knesset, even during the days of David Ben-Gurion or Yitzhak Rabin. Government formation involves extensive negotiations to constitute coalitions, which often rule with wafer-thin majorities. Netanyahu's negotiations with potential allies broke down in April largely on the issue of the privileges accorded to ultra-orthodox Jews, a key partner of his Likud Party coalition. The prime minister, however, appeared to be confident of winning a clearer mandate this time, hoping to cash in on his personality, muscular security policy, close ties with Trump and staying extremely hawkish on the Palestinian issue.
Netanyahu's Likud Party, however, ended up with 31 seats and his right-wing, theocratic coalition at 55, while his main challenger former general Benny Gantz's Kahol Lavan (Blue and White) came on top with 33 seats and his centre-right coalition winning 56. The man who holds the key to government formation seems to be Avigdor Lieberman of the secular nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu Party, which won eight seats. Lieberman's support could help Netanyahu or Gantz form a majority government. Lieberman, who was once a close ally of Netanyahu, broke with him last year over the issue of special privileges enjoyed by orthodox Jews, including exemption from military service, government funding for religious schools and the practice of certain municipalities shutting down public utilities to observe Sabbath. He did not budge from his position during the post-election negotiations in April, forcing Netanyahu to call another election. This time, too, Lieberman has announced that he is unwilling to compromise on the issue.
Lieberman has instead suggested that he will support a national unity government formed by Netanyahu and Gantz of which he may or may not be a part of. The suggestion has gained wide traction across Israel, especially among economists, who believe that a stable government can implement painful economic decisions easily, without facing pressure from coalition partners. After it became clear that he was in no position to cobble together a majority, Netanyahu released a video message on September 19, inviting Gantz to join him in a national unity government. “The nation expects us, both of us, to demonstrate responsibility and that we pursue cooperation,” said Netanyahu.
Gantz, however, swiftly rebuffed Netanyahu, making it clear that he did not intend to be a junior partner in a national unity government. Moreover, he said he preferred a “liberal” coalition, which means the ultra-Orthodox partners of the Likud were not welcome, although he is yet to have a viable plan to build a coalition. A few hours later, Gantz got one of his senior colleagues, Moshe Yaalon, to articulate his party's aversion to doing business with Netanyahu. Yaalon said the Blue and White Party was ready for a national unity government with Likud minus Netanyahu. “We will not enter a coalition with Netanyahu,” said Yaalon. “The time has come for you to tell Netanyahu, 'thank you for all you've done',” he said, addressing the Likud leadership, asking them to dump the prime minister.
The Likud, which has been dominated completely by Netanyahu, especially in the past decade, does not boast of a strong second rung leadership capable enough to challenge Netanyahu. But that situation could change if Netanyahu fails to stitch together a coalition by winning over Lieberman or manage to bring Gantz around to form a national unity government. So far, he has been able to keep his flock together. He even made his MKs, including rebel leader Gideon Sa'ar, to sign a loyalty pledge before the elections. He had also amended Likud rules some time ago, making it difficult to overthrow him.
After falling short of the majority once again, Netanyahu has threatened another election, if he is unable to form a government. But there is no certainty that he will be able to ensure a majority even then. Therefore, the possibility of Likud deposing Netanyahu and joining hands with Gantz and Lieberman to form a national unity government cannot be ruled out completely.
One of the main takeaways of this elections is the growing significance of the Arab vote. It was a major force that thwarted Netanyahu's march to power. The Joint List, comprising four Arab parties ranging from the Communist Hadash to the Islamist Ra'am, managed to keep in check its ideological divergences and emerged the third largest group in the Knesset by winning 12 seats. Ayman Odeh, leader of the Joint List, has indicated that the party might recommend Gatz for prime ministership, although formal participation in governance is highly unlikely. Arab citizens, who constitute 20 per cent of Israel's total population, are viewed with unbridled hostility and suspicion in the country. Despite Israel's democratic credentials, none of the major political parties is willing to do business with Arab parties. Lieberman, for instance, is a vocal critic of Israeli Arabs and has suggested many times ceding Israeli town with Arab majority to the Palestinian Authority. But if Gatz becomes prime minister, the Arabs will have a real chance to influence policy by offering the prime minister outside support in return of their parliamentary support on key votes.
Moreover, if the national unity government materialises, Odeh could become the leader of opposition in the Knesset by being the head of the third-largest parliamentary bloc. It would entitle him protection by Shin Bet, the Israeli internal security service, which had subjected Odeh to intensive interrogations several years ago suspecting treason. As opposition leader, Odeh will also be eligible to receive weekly security briefings from the prime minister as mandated by the law. The Knesset could, of course, vote to appoint someone other than Odeh as leader of the opposition. Yet, the recent elections have shown that a politically aware Israeli Arab voting bloc could upset the best-laid plans of mainstream political parties. Their turn out this time was an impressive 60 per cent, up from the 49 per cent recorded in the April elections. They aimed to bring Netanyahu down. Anyone but Netanyahu was the war cry of the Israeli Arab bloc.
For Netanyahu, the latest crisis could be the biggest of his life. Apart from the political battle, he has also been involved in a legal fight, which could end his political career. Netanyahu is facing prosecution over alleged charges of fraud, bribery and breach of trust. The attorney general has scheduled a pretrial hearing on October 2. Without the immunity the PM's office is bestowed with, a conviction could put him in prison and end his political career. Netanyahu, who has claimed that the prosecution was nothing but a witch hunt, has been banking on a proposed immunity law which would have shielded him from prosecution and arrest. But, the new law might not materialise if he fails to win a majority in the Knesset.
A change of guard in Jerusalem could also alter the course of the Arab-Israeli peace process, which is effectively stalled. For a decade and a half, the political atmosphere in Israel had shifted to the right and the peace process has been put on the backburner. The Labour Party, which once spearheaded the peace initiative, is just a pale shadow of its former self, winning barely six seats in a coalition with a much smaller party. With the completion of the security fence around Israel, the fear of Palestinian suicide bombings has largely dissipated and subsequently, the peace process is no longer a political priority. Nobody is even talking about the two-state solution. Netanyahu has been one of the key architects of this shift. But with security becoming a low-priority issue, many Israelis no longer think that it is important to have a hawkish prime minister with impeccable security credentials. It has, ironically, affected Netanyahu's USP, hurting his electoral prospects, and giving Gantz a chance. It could also lead to the unravelling of the right-wing coalition built and nurtured by Netanyahu and result in yet another realignment of Israeli politics. Netanyahu's success lay in stitching together a coalition involving the religious right and the secular right. The secular nationalists are, however, growing increasingly unhappy with the Likud coalition, especially on the special treatment given to the ultraorthodox population. And, unlike in the past, they have more options as well. Lieberman, who once relied solely on the Russian-speaking vote bank, has been assiduously courting them. Similarly, the Blue and White, too, comes with impeccable nationalist and security credentials. It boasts three former defence chiefs among its leadership and has been sufficiently hawkish on national security issues. There is not much of a difference between the security policies of Gantz and Netanyahu.
The first formal steps towards government formation will begin on September 22 with President Reuven Rivlin starting consultations with party leaders, asking for their recommendations about whom to invite to head the next government. A spokesperson for the president has indicated that Rivlin is unlikely to go with the leader with the maximum number of seats in the Knesset, but will look at the leader who has the best chance to stitch together a stable coalition. He will then have up to 42 days to form an agreement with other parties to set up a majority coalition. Despite his demand for the first shot at forming the government, Gantz may prefer the president to invite Netanyahu first. Because, it is quite likely that he will fail and it considerably increases the chances of a rebellion within the Likud Party and will also force other parties to throw their weight behind Gantz, at least to prevent another round of elections.
Netanyahu, however, is unlikely to go down without a fight. He was written off many times in the past, but he has managed to come back stronger every single time. He could precipitate a security crisis by launching a war in Gaza. Or he could somehow convince Lieberman to give him another chance or may even wean away a few of the smaller parties from the centre-left bloc. Or he could still go back to the people. The elections are over, but the political drama in Israel will continue for a while.
