The tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir continue to escalate. A day after Pakistan expelled India's High Commissioner Ajay Bisaria, the Samjhauta Express was next. The train service, which is a vital link for people-to-people ties between the two countries, was snapped. The Pakistan engine driver refused to drive into India abandoning the train and passengers at Wagah.
Indian officials had to ferry passengers from Wagah to Attari on the Indian side as well as rescue the engine. The federal railway minister of Pakistan Sheikh Rashid Ahmed at a press conference vowed: “Till I am the railways minister the Samjhauta Express train will not operate.” Ahmed's statement—aimed at the domestic audience—reflects the sentiment on the ground. Kashmir, across the border, is a very emotive issue. With celebrities also joining in the chorus—for Pakistan to act—along with the opposition, pressure is mounting on Imran Khan's government to act.
On Wednesday, British born Pakistani actor Riz Ahmed took to Instagram to protest. “This latest move makes the status quo official, and will make the issue much worse in the short and long term. It will worsen the security situation in the valley, damage India’s reputation abroad, and makes Indian soldiers less not more safe—not to mention the horrors that will continue to be visited in Kashmir’s population,” he wrote. He is not the only one. Even Nobel Prize winner Malala Yousafzai took to Twitter to “peacefully resolving the seven-decade-old conflict in Kashmir”. Carefully written, Malala did not toe the Pakistani line and didn't mention Article 370, a red flag for India but said: “There is no need for us to continue to suffer and hurt each other. Today I am worried about the safety of the Kashmiri children and women, the most vulnerable...and the most likely to suffer losses in conflict.''
With very little wiggle room, Pakistan will need to demonstrate to its domestic audience that it has flexed its muscles. Diplomatically, it has very few options. Taking the matter to the United Nations and the Security Council, is unlikely to meet with much success. It is then easier to attack, the most vulnerable aspect of the relationship—people-to-people ties.
“The low in the relationship will continue,” said Dhananjay Tripathi, assistant professor at the South Asian University. “We have not seen this kind of reaction from Pakistan in a long time. The cutting off trade between the two countries is unfortunate. At the moment, the World Bank puts the figure at 2 billion dollars. The potential is 35 billion dollars.''
While Pakistan has continued to reduce diplomatic ties between the countries, India, in a statement issued by the external affairs ministry, has chosen to take a more measured approach. “The government of India regrets the steps announced by Pakistan yesterday and would urge that country to review them so that normal channels for diplomatic communications are preserved,” a statement from the MEA read reacting to Pakistan's decision to downgrade the diplomatic relations.
“We have seen reports that Pakistan has decided to take certain unilateral actions in respect to its bilateral relations with India. This includes the downgrading of our diplomatic relations. The intention behind these measures is obviously to present an alarming picture to the world of our bilateral ties. The reasons cited by Pakistan are not supported by facts on the ground,” the MEA statement read.
So, is the Delhi-Lahore bus service next? While so far the bus service continues—one of the most tenacious connections between the two countries, it continued through Kargil only to be stopped in 2001 after the Parliamentary attack—the question is will it continue? So far India has chose to stick to keeping the wheels of the bus between Lahore and Delhi firmly going. Will it be a real test to keep it going? It is small steps like this that count the most at the moment.