As Imran Khan was sworn in as the prime minister of Pakistan on August 18, 2018, one of the major concerns globally was about how he would manage Pakistan’s nuclear power. The Pakistan army's backing of Khan during the elections was so open that it led the opposition to term the polls “rigged”. With a Rawalpindi friendly government at the helm, India and the international community now worry about the safety and security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons.
Pakistan’s nuclear command and control, for now, is claimed to be secure and in the hands of civilian authority owing to its democratic government structure. Though Khan has clarified that nuclear weapons are in safe hands, an army-backed government raises concerns. There are claims that it is not the prime minister but the military that takes crucial decisions on nuclear weapons. If this is true, it is less likely that Khan enjoys any autonomy in the decision-making process regarding nuclear weapons. Also, if it is true that the army helped Khan win the elections, there is little that he can and would do so lest it jeopardises his position. Khan will have to go with the flow on the decisions taken by the army on nuclear security.
Khan has been supportive of nuclear power for long and considers the same to be a necessity for strengthening deterrence and to exert its influence, as well as to portray pride and prestige. To make matters worse, Pakistan is moving towards becoming one of the fastest growing nuclear powers in the world. Pakistan has not only developed strategic nuclear weapons but also tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) called the Nasr with a range of 60km.
The missile was testfired for the first time in 2011, and since then concerns have been raised on the deterrence and stability-instability paradox in the South Asian periphery. Opponents of TNWs argued that there would be problems in the command and control of weapons in future as these could fall into the hands of battlefield commanders in times of conflict. Thereby, making the probability of use of TNWs high, even in sub-conventional warfare.
With an army-backed prime minister at the helm, the concern over the control of nuclear weapons would only worsen, not just for India but also for the global order. Missiles like the Shaheen III are reported to have the capability to reach targets in Israel—a country with which Pakistan does not share cordial relations. In the past, Israel had planned to bomb Pakistan’s nuclear facilities.
There are sceptics who raise doubts on whether Khan is the right choice as the leader and protector of the Sunni bomb. Along with economy-related challenges, Khan’s immediate bigger challenge would be how to manage the bomb.
Also, Pakistan’s role in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that would form a component of the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) can lead to the country initiating nuclear proliferation through a much easier route. It could also become a route for drug trafficking that would help Pakistan earn more hard cash that the military could divert towards nuclear weapons and also conventional weapons development and procurement, respectively.
South Asia is not oblivious to nuclear brinkmanship. The Kargil episode was one such example where a nuclear threat was averted only because of US intervention. However, in future should there be a Kargil-like crisis during Khan’s regime, and should the military decide to launch nuclear weapons, especially TNWs, it would result in an all-out nuclear war given India’s nuclear doctrine that states massive retaliation. It is difficult to fathom whether an army-friendly Khan would succumb to western pressures and decide a use nuclear weapons, or provide support for the use of nuclear weapons in case of crisis.
It is not just the issue of nuclear weapons and its safety and security in Pakistan that is a global concern today. Pakistan is facing tough challenges—economic development, terrorism and corruption.
In July 2018, the US suspended security aid of $2 billion to Pakistan on grounds that Pakistan had failed to curb terrorism. If Khan fails to curb terrorism, further assistance could be suspended. This may result in turmoil in the country due to lack of economic development and Pakistan might continue to modernise its nuclear forces, not just as a deterrent against India but also to become an influential player in Middle East in order to divert the attention of the population and instil a sense of pride and achievement in them.
Suspending aid to Pakistan will also result in economic downturn that might result in Pakistan promoting more proxy wars against India which it fights confidently under the nuclear shadow. Though India does not support western aid to Pakistan, it also cannot bear an economically weak Pakistan that will continue to promote proxy wars against India—a strategy Pakistan uses to divert attention from its economic problems to avoid criticisms and to unite its people against India.
In addition, as mentioned earlier, Pakistan can become the third largest country with fissile material stockpile. It is very obvious that such measures would be supported by Khan but it would only lead to proliferation concerns—both horizontal as well as vertical. Such an act is dangerous for regional and global stability. Many countries in the Middle East, like Saudi Arabia, could resort to nuclear weapons that they could easily acquire from Pakistan in future.
Pakistan has to realise that while China is an all-weather friend, and is a proxy that opens the challenge of a two-front war against India, during Kargil crisis, China barely gave any support to Pakistan. So, it would be a folly on Pakistan's part to believe that they could resort to nuclear outbreak without any international pressure and sanctions and may not receive support from even their closest allies. Khan would need to keep all these issues in mind during his tenure and also when he deals with India.
Pakistan’s nuclear force modernisation process and growing fissile material stockpile coupled with its inability to check or counter terrorism would only result in jeopardising its relations with the US.
Khan’s challenges are not few and not without hindrances as mentioned above. There is little that he would be able to do to alleviate global concerns especially as the nuclear weapons and its management will be under stringent scrutiny of the military.
Debalina Ghoshal is an independent consultant.
