Earlier this week, two interesting statements about Saudi Arabia's nuclear policy were made public, and both appeared to be in contradiction with each other. On March 13, the Saudi cabinet approved the national policy on atomic energy, reaffirming its plan to develop nuclear energy, although the kingdom is the world's largest oil exporter. The policy calls for enhanced safety measures, best practices for nuclear waste management and, most importantly, a commitment to the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Two days later, American television network CBS aired the preview of the latest episode of its 60 Minutes interview, featuring Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. MbS, who is visiting the United States from March 19, told host Norah O'Donnell about his plans to develop an atom bomb. “Without a doubt, if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible,” he said.
Although Saudi Arabia has hinted in the past about its intentions of going nuclear, the latest announcement was shocking as it was made by the most powerful person in the kingdom. Saudi Arabia is already working on establishing a civilian nuclear power project. It has floated international tenders to build 16 civil nuclear reactors in the next 25 years in an effort to diversify its energy mix and reduce its reliance over hydrocarbons. The US, Russia, China, France and South Korea have bid for building the first two reactors.
Saudi Arabia has been pressing the US to allow it an exemption to enrich uranium domestically and also to preprocess spent nuclear fuel as part of the deal. With MbS announcing his plans to develop a nuclear bomb, US companies like Westinghouse may have to withdraw from the project as US laws prevent the transfer of nuclear technology to a country which has not signed an agreement, ruling out uranium enrichment.
MbS also targeted Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in the interview, comparing him with Hitler. “He wants to expand, he wants to create his own project in the Middle East,” said MbS, referring to Khamenei. “Many countries around the world and in Europe did not realise how dangerous Hitler was until what happened happened. I don’t want to see the same events happening in the Middle East.” MbS, however, said he did not consider Iran as a challenge to Saudi Arabia as its army was not among the top five in the Muslim world, and its economy was no match for the Saudi one. Spokesperson for the Iranian foreign ministry, Bahram Qassemi, said MbS lacked foresight. “He is a delusional, naive person, who never talks, but with lies and bitterness. He has no idea of politics.”
Under MbS, Saudi Arabia has been ratcheting up aggression in the region, especially against Iran. It has imposed an embargo on Qatar, and blamed it on Qatar's growing ties with Iran. It has forced fellow GCC countries like the UAE and Bahrain to join the blockade. Saudi is also playing a key role in the ongoing civil war in Yemen by actively opposing the Iran-supported Houthi rebels.
The timing of the threat by MbS is interesting. He is due to land in the US on March 19 for a multi-city tour, and, on the Iran nuclear deal, MbS and President Trump are on the same page. During the course of his campaign, and even after taking over as president, Trump has been clearly opposed to the deal. What probably stopped him from walking away from the deal was opposition from his European allies and from his secretary of state, Rex Tillerson. Despite the president's disapproval, Tillerson used to certify every three months that Iran was complying with its commitments under the deal, as required under US laws. With Trump firing Tillerson on March 13 and replacing him with CIA director Mike Pompeo, the possibility of a recertification looks bleak.
Pompeo has always been a hardliner on Iran and once called Iran a despotic theocracy. If, subsequent to his confirmation by the senate, he refuses to certify Iran's adherence to the terms of the nuclear deal, it is likely to collapse despite support of Europe. Russia has indicated that American withdrawal will lead to the collapse of the deal. Iran, too, has warned that it will walk away if the US abandoned the deal.
For MbS, therefore, the appointment of Pompeo is a clear indication that Trump is likely to adopt a position favouring Saudi Arabia on the nuclear issue. According to a Channel Ten report, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told his cabinet that Trump revealed to him that he would walk away from the Iran deal by May. MbS probably intends to keep the Iran issue in the spotlight by referring to his plans to develop nuclear weapons.
MbS has been preparing exhaustively for his US visit. Several lobbyists are working to popularise his reform initiatives. His plans to curtail the power of the religious establishment, to give more rights—including the permission to drive—to women, to pursue a more muscular foreign policy and to aggressively garner power by sidelining rival princes in the Al Saud family are all being sold to the west in a really convincing manner. Leading journalists like Thomas Friedman and David Ignatius were invited to Saudi Arabia and were given exclusive access to MbS. Both have come back and written articles eulogising the young prince and his initiatives in The New York Times and The Washington Post.
Yet, achieving a sea change in a conservative society like Saudi Arabia may not be easy for MbS. The Yemeni misadventure, which has cost the kingdom reportedly $120 billion so far, has not yielded any results. With the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Yemen, most countries are opposed to the Saudi intervention. The blockade against Qatar has also been a failure. There are reports about a reconciliation process to resolve the crisis diplomatically.
The biggest challenge for MbS, however, is likely to come from the royal family itself. In his attempt to be the sole power centre in the kingdom, MbS has upended the traditional power sharing mechanisms in the House of Saud. The antagonised princes are unlikely to go away silently and they could well be plotting to recover lost money, influence and even power. Moreover, the anti-corruption campaign by MbS targeting several influential princes and prominent businessmen could lead to a major backlash. Although the campaign netted more than $100 billion in fines from the princes, there are many inside the kingdom and outside who question the move as MbS, too, has expensive tastes. His reported purchases of a $550 million yacht, a Da Vinci painting worth $450 million and a French chateau worth $300 million have raised concerns about the real motives behind the anti-corruption drive.
Even as the US prepares to welcome the crown prince, NBC News broke a story about MbS keeping his mother under house arrest, in order to consolidate his hold on power. According to 14 current and former senior US officials, MbS blocked his mother from meeting his father, King Salman, and told the King that she was abroad for medical treatment. MbS took the extreme step after he suspected that his mother would oppose his power grab as she felt it would affect the stability of the royal family.
Iran, meanwhile, is a soft target to deflect attention from such criticisms. And, the spectre of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East will certainly raise alarm across western capitals. The latest move by MbS seems to have its desired effect.