India has suffered two humiliating losses to Pakistan and New Zealand in the Super 12 stage of the T20 World Cup thus giving both these opponents the upper hand to clinch the two semifinal spots on offer from their group.
The 10-wicket loss to Pakistan last week and the 8-wicket defeat to New Zealand last night have dented India’s net run rate in the group.
India has three more matches to play—against Afghanistan, Namibia and Scotland. This, after all, is the relatively easier of the two groups.
Though India’s progress is no longer in its hands, the team would first have to win their remaining three fixtures, and preferably by large margins, to have any hope of making the semifinals.
Pakistan sit pretty at the top of the group, winning all three of their opening games. They have to play only Namibia and Scotland, the lowest ranked teams in the final 12, which means they have virtually qualified for the semifinal.
Which leaves one spot remaining.
Since India can get only a maximum of six points, the team will have to hope that none of the other teams barring Pakistan get more than six.
Afghanistan and New Zealand are the only two teams likely to win three matches, but for this to happen, all eyes will be on them when they play each other on November 7.
Should Afghanistan upset New Zealand—and also lose to India—then both teams would have lost at least two games. This is a scenario that India will be hoping for, in which case, India could creep into the semifinals if, and only if, they have a superior net run rate.
The other scenario is that New Zealand beat Afghanistan and then lose to either Namibia or Scotland, which is highly unlikely.
India will play the last match in this group, a game against Namibia, by which time the team will know whether they stand a chance or not. If either of the above two scenarios play out by then, a thumping win over Namibia could see India through.
The chances though are slim, and the Namibia game could be dead rubber by then.
