Can Eisenkot's opposition alliance seize its best chance to unseat Netanyahu?

Israel's election has produced a deeply divided Knesset, and neither of the two main blocs has a clear route to forming the government. Turnout was the highest since 1999, yet the result left Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc with 53 seats and the opposition alliance led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot with 48, both short of the 61 needed in the 120-seat house. Two Arab-led parties won a record 19 seats between them, which gives them a decisive position that neither side has so far been willing to acknowledge.

The final count departed from early expectations. Exit polls had suggested a collapse of the governing alliance to 50 seats, but the official tally from the Central Elections Committee confirmed 53, a drop from the 64 won in 2022. Netanyahu's Likud nevertheless emerged as the single largest party. That outcome followed a campaign in which he faced public anger over the security failures of October 7, the proposed judicial overhaul and the draft exemptions granted to the ultra-Orthodox. He responded by warning that any concession would lead to a Palestinian state in the West Bank, a message carried on billboards in urban centres that critics described as provocative. His campaign also used AI-generated advertisements to portray Arab politicians such as Mansour Abbas as threats to internal security. As Arab turnout rose, Netanyahu declared on social media that Arabs were trying to steal the elections and urged right-wing voters to treat the ballot as a matter of life and death. He also directed attention towards Iran's nuclear programme, presenting himself as the indispensable protector of the country, and he benefited from the endorsement of US President Donald Trump.

Eisenkot entered the contest as the favourite of the opinion polls, which had placed his alliance ahead for months, and he expected to assemble a majority from Zionist parties alone. His campaign faltered because of internal rivalries and a self-imposed ban on governing with Arab-led parties, which accepted the premise of Netanyahu's argument that Arab votes carried less legitimacy. Post-election polling showed that most opposition voters supported a partnership with Ra'am to remove Netanyahu, yet Eisenkot declined to defend the legitimacy of Arab political participation and set preconditions on the Jewish character of the state and on military objectives that made formal cooperation impossible. The opposition also lacked unity behind his leadership, since former prime minister Naftali Bennett and the right-wing leader Avigdor Liberman are reported to have their own premiership ambitions and did not coordinate a common front. Analysts regarded this as the opposition's best opportunity to defeat Netanyahu decisively.

The Arab minority, which makes up roughly 20 per cent of the population, voted in unprecedented numbers, with turnout exceeding 75 per cent. Earlier calls for a boycott gave way to a determination to remove a government that many Arab citizens regard as hostile to them. The Joint List and Ra'am together secured the 19 seats, and their leaders signalled a readiness to cooperate that had not been seen before. Abbas placed a Jewish candidate second on his list, while the Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen spoke of a Jewish-Arab partnership to unseat the government. The mainstream Jewish opposition has nevertheless continued to exclude Arab parties from its coalition plans, which leaves a historic electoral achievement without political consequence.

The outcome revives memories of the deadlock between 2019 and 2022, when voters went to the polls five times, and it reflects deep divisions over the judiciary, military exemptions for religious students and the relations between secular and ultra-Orthodox communities.

Several paths to government formation exist, but each faces formidable obstacles. Eisenkot could reach a majority in partnership with the Joint List and Ra'am, or he could form a minority government that relies on the outside support of at least six Arab lawmakers in confidence votes, yet both options will meet strong resistance from Jewish lawmakers. A broad centrist-right national unity government of Likud, Yashar, Together and Yisrael Beiteinu would command 66 seats and would exclude the far-right fringe parties. It would, however, breach Eisenkot's campaign pledge never to serve under Netanyahu, and Netanyahu may be reluctant to share power with bitter rivals. Either leader could also try to get individual lawmakers or allied factions to defect and join them. Netanyahu could encourage right-wing members of the opposition to cross the aisle, while Eisenkot could approach the ultra-Orthodox parties, although the dispute over draft exemptions remains a substantial barrier.

The constitutional timetable adds pressure without resolving the question. A prospective prime minister has 28 days to form a government, with a possible extension of 14 days, after which a rival candidate will be given the chance. If both fail, the Knesset will dissolve and a new election will follow. President Isaac Herzog has urged the leaders to avoid that outcome, but a prolonged stalemate favours Netanyahu, who remains in office as caretaker prime minister for as long as the parties fail to agree.