The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran appears closer than ever to collapse after President Donald Trump warned on Monday that the truce was on “massive life support” and had only a “1 per cent chance” of surviving. Trump’s unusually bleak assessment came after Tehran delivered a counterproposal for a peace agreement that he angrily dismissed as “totally unacceptable”, “stupid”, and a “piece of garbage”.
The worsening rhetoric has intensified fears that war could restart soon. According to CNN, Trump has begun seriously considering the possibility of resuming major military operations. The ceasefire, which took effect a month ago after intense fighting between American and Iranian forces, has repeatedly come under strain. Both sides have already exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran’s continued blockade of the strategic waterway has become a growing source of frustration for Trump and his advisers.
Despite the rising tensions, officials familiar with the negotiations say no final decision on renewed military action is expected before Trump’s upcoming visit to China, where the Iran crisis is likely to dominate discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Inside the administration, Trump faces sharp divisions over how to proceed. Some Pentagon officials are urging a far more aggressive strategy, including targeted strikes designed to weaken Tehran’s military position and force Iranian leaders back to the negotiating table on American terms. Others within the administration continue to argue that diplomacy should still be given a chance, warning that another military escalation could destabilise the entire Middle East and trigger a wider global crisis.
One proposal being considered is restarting “Project Freedom”, providing the US Navy escort to oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump had launched the plan earlier before suspending it to allow negotiations to continue. However, the proposal encountered strong resistance from key Gulf allies, particularly Saudi Arabia, which reportedly refused to allow the United States to use its airspace or military bases for what it viewed as an unnecessarily provocative operation.
At the diplomatic level, Trump has increasingly relied on Pakistan as a mediator between Washington and Tehran. Yet American officials are said to be deeply suspicious of Islamabad’s role. Some within the White House believe Pakistani intermediaries are failing to communicate Trump’s anger forcefully enough to the Iranians and are instead presenting an overly optimistic picture of Tehran’s willingness to compromise.
Iran, meanwhile, has adopted an exceptionally hardline position. Iranian leaders appear convinced that they survived the combined American and Israeli military pressure and emerged politically strengthened from the confrontation. This belief has made Tehran far less willing to offer concessions. According to Iranian state media, Tehran’s latest proposal demanded that the United States compensate Iran for wartime damage, lift economic sanctions, release frozen Iranian assets abroad and pressure Israel into ending its conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iranian officials also reportedly demanded formal American recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, effectively granting Tehran the authority to control international shipping and impose tolls on vessels passing through the waterway. Such a demand would be regarded by much of the international community as a major violation of international maritime law.
Iranian political leaders have also continued issuing defiant warnings. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared that Iran’s armed forces were “prepared for all options” and capable of delivering a “lesson-teaching response” to any new American attack. This hardline posture persists despite mounting domestic turmoil inside Iran itself. The prolonged conflict and sanctions have devastated the Iranian economy. Millions of people have reportedly lost jobs, inflation has surged to crippling levels and widespread internet blackouts have disrupted daily life across the country. Security forces have also responded violently to anti-government protests, fuelling growing public anger.
China’s role may now prove decisive in determining whether diplomacy survives. Beijing remains Iran’s largest customer for sanctioned crude oil and therefore possesses considerable economic leverage over Tehran. Trump is expected to use his meeting with Xi to pressure China into forcing Iran towards concessions. However, foreign policy experts remain sceptical that Beijing will cooperate with Washington’s demands. China is unlikely to reduce its oil purchases or halt arms sales to Iran simply to satisfy American strategic objectives.
With diplomacy stalled, military tensions rising and the global economy already feeling the strain, the Middle East once again stands dangerously close to a wider war whose consequences could spread far beyond the region.
