After 40 days of war, the US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with President Donald Trump announcing that he was pushing off a major bombing campaign in Iran for two weeks. Trump announced that he received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believes it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
“Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two-week period will allow the Agreement to be finalised and consummated,” Trump added.
With Trump’s announcement, the US has effectively halted all offensive operations against Iran, though said defensive measures and operations remain in effect.
Iran, the US and Israel all have claimed victory. While the US said the reason for the ceasefire is that the US has met and exceeded all military objectives, Iran has claimed that the talks, which may last up to 15 days and can be extended by agreement, aim to finalise details of its 10-point proposal. Included in the proposal are “continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance of enrichment, lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions.”
But, political observers feel the 40 days of war ended in Iranian victory. The Islamic regime managed to survive despite Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's elimination, the nuclear weapons remained, and the Strait of Hormuz became Tehran's ATM. Israel and the US emerge from the campaign with an agreement that is all strategic surrender, political pundits believe.
On a tactical level, the Iranians managed to force an agreement on the US that it largely wrote, and was marketed by the Pakistanis and the Turks. Second, Iran managed to target all the Gulf states until the last moment, and it fired the last bullet. Iran, after 41 days of fighting, is standing on its feet and continues to fire.
Trump initially claimed that regime change was one of his goals, which he later retracted. For Iran, the fact that the regime still survives can be interpreted as a victory, despite its many losses, destruction of military equipment and infrastructure. Despite the loss of their supreme leader and much of the IRGC's top leadership, they are still standing. Not just that, they have also received an upgrade after the younger generation was promoted to leadership. And, the current leadership is believed to be more extreme.
Though the end of the war will depend on how the negotiations go, Iranians still haven’t agreed to Trump’s 15-point proposal. These demands are believed to include: Iran committing to no nuclear weapons, handing over its highly enriched uranium, limits on Tehran’s defence capabilities, an end to regional proxy groups and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The agreement stipulated that the parties would discuss the dilution of the material in the future and the implementation of a civilian nuclear project.
Also, two of Iran’s demands coming out of the ceasefire deal was its control over the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran wants to levy tolls on ships going through the Strait of Hormuz and apparently wants US combat forces out of the region. This has established that Iran is the entity that holds control over what is happening in the Arabian Gulf.
