Blockade, invasion, or destruction: How far will Trump go to control Kharg Island?

The United States is said to be openly exploring a blockade, occupation or even the destruction of Kharg Island as a central strategy in the escalating war with Iran. According to multiple American news outlets, President Donald Trump has placed the island at the centre of his military calculations in a bid to force Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, where repeated Iranian attacks on commercial shipping have severely disrupted global energy flows.

The consequences are already visible. Oil prices have surged above $110 a barrel, triggering what analysts describe as one of the most serious supply disruptions in modern history. The administration had earlier attempted to bring prices down through diplomacy, including easing pressure on Russian exports and quietly allowing Iranian oil to continue reaching India and China. Yesterday, the US even lifted sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea. Those efforts have failed to stabilise the market, leaving Washington increasingly inclined towards a more aggressive strategy.

Despite its small size, Kharg Island occupies an outsized role in Iran’s economy and energy strategy. The island is little more than a coral outcrop of about 20 square kilometres, roughly one-third the size of Manhattan. Yet before the war it handled close to 90 per cent of Iran’s crude oil exports. Its importance lies not only in its infrastructure but also in its geography. Unlike much of Iran’s shallow Persian Gulf coastline, Kharg is surrounded by deep waters that allow the world’s largest supertankers to dock directly at its terminals.

Over decades, Iran has built an extensive network of storage tanks, pipelines and loading facilities on the island. At its peak, the system could load up to ten supertankers simultaneously, making it one of the most efficient export hubs in the region. Much of this oil has continued to reach China through a vast “shadow fleet” of tankers operating outside the formal global system. The revenue from these exports is believed to fund a large share of Iran’s government spending, making Kharg not just an energy asset but a financial lifeline for the regime.

Against this backdrop, the Trump administration is reportedly examining three main options. The first is a naval blockade designed to cut off Iran’s ability to use the island. The second is a limited ground invasion to seize control of the facilities. The third is the most drastic: a targeted destruction of the island’s oil infrastructure.

Preparations for a possible coastal operation are already under way. The Pentagon has deployed additional forces to the region, and more, including Marine expeditionary units and amphibious assault ships, are on their way. Military planners are believed to be considering a phased strategy in which a sustained air campaign would first weaken Iranian defences before any ground troops land. Earlier this month, US aircraft carried out a precision bombing raid on the island that struck dozens of Iranian military targets while deliberately avoiding the oil infrastructure itself.

That restraint may not last. Trump has repeatedly suggested that the island’s pipeline network could be destroyed with relative ease. If the pipelines and storage systems were wiped out, Iran could lose its main source of revenue for years.

Yet many military analysts believe such a move would come with enormous risks. Kharg’s destruction would remove up to two million barrels of oil from the market, and the shock could push prices perhaps beyond $200 per barrel. There is also the possibility of mass casualties of American soldiers as Kharg is a small, confined space packed with highly flammable infrastructure. 

Moreover, even if the United States captured the island, it might not immediately lead to the opening up of the Strait of Hormuz. Seizing it would not automatically prevent Iran from attacking shipping or mining the waters of the strait. Over the past few years, Tehran has also invested heavily in alternative export routes, including smaller Gulf ports that can still send oil to Asia. In other words, destroying Kharg might hurt Iran, but it may not break its ability to wage economic warfare.