Americans more sympathetic to Palestinians than to Israel for the first time: Gallup polls

For decades, American public opinion on the Israeli–Palestinian conflict followed a familiar pattern: clear sympathy for Israel, tempered by periodic concern for Palestinian suffering. That pattern has now been disrupted. A new Gallup poll released on Friday suggests a historic realignment in the attitudes of citizens in the United States towards one of their closest allies, Israel, and its long-running conflict with the Palestinians.

For the first time since Gallup began tracking the question, more Americans say they sympathise with the Palestinians than with the Israelis. According to the survey, 41 per cent of respondents express greater sympathy for the Palestinians, compared with 36 per cent who side more with the Israelis. The five-point margin may appear modest, but in historical terms it represents a dramatic narrowing of what was once a vast gulf. Between 2001 and 2018, American sympathy for Israel exceeded that for the Palestinians by an average of 43 percentage points. The latest findings, therefore, mark not simply fluctuation but a structural shift.

The transformation is being driven above all by political independents, whose views have moved steadily over the past several years. Even before the October 2023 attacks by Hamas and the subsequent war in Gaza, independent voters were drifting away from their traditionally pro-Israel stance. Now, for the first time on record, independents sympathise more with the Palestinians, at 41 per cent, than with the Israelis, at 30 per cent. That reversal has had an outsized effect on the national balance.

Among Democrats, the sympathy with Palestinians is at 65 per cent, with just 17 per cent having a favourable opinion about Israelis, a tilt which started becoming more pronounced from 2023.  The issue has thus become another marker of widening ideological divides within American politics, particularly between progressive activists and more traditional foreign policy establishments.

Republicans remain the only major political group whose sympathies predominantly lie with Israel. Seventy per cent say they sympathise more with Israelis. Yet even here there are signs of erosion. Support among Republicans has fallen by ten points since 2024 and now stands at its lowest level since 2004, influenced by the “America First” wing within the party, which questions overseas entanglements. While this faction does not necessarily endorse the Palestinian cause, its scepticism towards international alliances has softened automatic support for Israel.

Age is another decisive factor. Younger Americans, aged 18 to 34, show the strongest tilt towards the Palestinians. A majority of 53 per cent say they sympathise more with Palestinians, compared with just 23 per cent who favour Israelis. That 23 per cent figure represents a record low for Israel among this demographic. Middle-aged Americans, between 35 and 54, have also shifted markedly over the past year. Among them, 46 per cent now sympathise more with Palestinians and 28 per cent with Israelis. Older adults, aged 55 and above, remain more supportive of Israel, with 49 per cent expressing greater sympathy for Israelis compared with 31 per cent for Palestinians. Even so, the 18-point gap is the narrowest recorded in two decades.

Interestingly, broader favourability ratings still give Israel an edge. Forty-six per cent of Americans view Israel favourably, compared with 37 per cent who say the same of the Palestinian Territories. Yet the trajectory is not good news for Israel. 

Support for a two-state solution has also climbed. Fifty-seven per cent of Americans now back the creation of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel, matching a 23-year high last seen in 2003. That figure stands in stark contrast to the opinion among the populations directly affected. Recent polling indicates that only around 27 per cent of Israelis and 33 per cent of Palestinians living in the West Bank and East Jerusalem currently support such an arrangement. In this respect, American public opinion appears more optimistic about diplomatic compromise than those living with the daily realities of the conflict.

The roots of this transformation stretch back several years. Sympathy for Israel began to soften around 2019, influenced in part by domestic political polarisation and growing Democratic disapproval of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. What added to the shift was Israel's overwhelming use of force as it responded to the 2023 Hamas attacks. The massive death toll among Gaza residents, the widespread destruction, the humanitarian crisis, and adverse remarks from the International Court of Justice and arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court for Israeli leaders seem to have worked against Israel.