President Donald Trump is leaning towards ordering an initial, limited military strike on Iran if a last round of diplomacy collapses this week. According to officials familiar with internal discussions, potential targets under consideration include assets linked to Iran’s ballistic missile programme, key nuclear facilities and the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
If those limited strikes fail to compel Tehran’s immediate compliance, Trump has reportedly told advisers he would remain open to authorising a far larger military offensive later in the year. Such an operation, they suggest, could expand beyond infrastructure to directly threaten the authority of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The decision hinges on what has been described as a “last chance” round of negotiations scheduled for Thursday in Geneva. The American delegation is being led by special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Trump has indicated that their assessment of Iran’s intentions will be decisive. If they conclude that Tehran is deliberately stalling, the path to military action could become difficult to avoid.
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Publicly, Trump has issued a stark ultimatum. The world, he said, will know within “probably, 10 days” whether a deal is achieved or whether “bad things happen”. The positions of both sides appear deeply entrenched. Trump is demanding that Iran completely abandon its ballistic missile production, cease support for proxy militias across the region and accept absolute “zero enrichment” of nuclear material. For Tehran, however, enrichment has long been framed as a sovereign right tied to peaceful nuclear technology. Iranian officials insist they will not relinquish it under any circumstances.
A potential compromise has been explored through the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear watchdog. Under this proposal, Iran would be permitted to maintain a highly restricted enrichment programme limited strictly to medical research and cancer treatments, under rigorous international monitoring. Yet it remains uncertain whether Trump, who has publicly insisted on zero enrichment, or Iranian leaders who have invested billions in vast industrial-scale facilities, would accept such a formula.
Along with the diplomatic effort, Washington has assembled the largest concentration of American air and naval power in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. It includes at least 16 US Navy ships and two carrier strike groups built around the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford, the latter the world’s largest warship, which recently transited the Strait of Gibraltar en route to the eastern Mediterranean.
The naval deployment is backed by B-2 stealth bombers, refuelling aircraft and hundreds of cargo flights. Advanced fighter jets including F-35s, F-15s and F-16s have been dispatched to forward bases. In a particularly unusual move, 12 F-22 stealth fighters were deployed directly to an Israeli Air Force base, a step widely interpreted as operational positioning rather than routine joint training.
With between 30,000 and 40,000 American troops already stationed across the Middle East, the Pentagon has also reinforced regional missile defences, rushing additional Patriot batteries and other interceptor systems into theatre. The State Department has evacuated non-essential personnel from its embassy in Lebanon amid rising tensions. Meanwhile, the CIA has published detailed instructions in Farsi advising Iranian dissidents on how to communicate securely with the agency, signalling preparations not only for military confrontation but also for intensified intelligence operations.
Despite the scale of the build-up, there is reported friction within the administration over the risks involved. General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has repeatedly warned the White House that a strike on Iran carries a severe risk of American casualties. He has also cautioned that sustained operations could rapidly deplete critical interceptor stockpiles, including Patriot and THAAD systems, at a time when global commitments remain high. Caine has stressed that attacking Iran would be significantly more complex than previous limited operations. Trump has publicly dismissed such assessments as “fake news”, insisting that American military superiority would prevail and claiming that Caine believes a war would be “easily won”.
The gravity of the situation was underscored when Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a rare classified briefing to the congressional “gang of eight” at the White House, outlining intelligence assessments and the potential for major military action. Key lawmakers from both parties in the House and Senate and the chairs and ranking members of the House and Senate intelligence committees attended the briefing.
Tehran, for its part, is preparing for retaliation on multiple fronts. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted extensive exercises along Iran’s southern coastline, deploying amphibious units and firing missiles, mortars and drones at mock naval targets. Khamenei has warned that Iran possesses the capability to strike American and Israeli assets, even suggesting that an American warship could be sunk.
Western intelligence agencies also believe Iran is mobilising its wider “axis of resistance” for hybrid and asymmetric retaliation. Intercepts have reportedly revealed heightened coordination among proxy groups that could target less-defended US bases, embassies and commercial interests in Europe and the Middle East. Counter-terrorism analysts further warn of the risk that Iran could exploit the presence within its borders of Saif al-Adel, widely regarded as Al Qaeda’s de facto leader. In a worst-case scenario, operatives linked to Al Qaeda could be encouraged to carry out mass-casualty attacks to raise the costs of any American campaign.