Iran has announced that it was withdrawing from the agreement that would have allowed international inspectors to return to its nuclear sites, a decision made only hours after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) demanded a full accounting of its enriched uranium stock and the condition of facilities struck during Israeli and American air raids in June. That 12-day conflict left several key sites damaged and has prevented the IAEA from conducting inspections ever since.
Although President Donald Trump declared that Iran’s enrichment programme had been destroyed, many officials and independent experts doubt this claim and fear that the attacks may instead have strengthened Tehran’s determination to pursue a nuclear deterrent.
The deterioration accelerated after the IAEA adopted a resolution earlier this month that demanded precise information from Iran regarding nuclear material, safeguarded facilities and the access required to verify both. Tehran instantly dismissed the resolution as hostile and threatened retaliation. This reaction was consistent with the hardening mood in Iran since the June war, which had already led the government to suspend all cooperation with inspectors. For a brief moment in early September, there appeared to be hope of a reset when the IAEA’s Director General reached an agreement in Cairo with Iran’s Foreign Minister to resume inspections. That understanding quickly faded as political tensions increased. Britain, France and Germany moved to trigger the snapback mechanism of the 2015 nuclear agreement, reinstating United Nations sanctions that had previously been lifted. Tehran responded with anger, insisting it would no longer implement the Cairo agreement.
Following the IAEA’s latest resolution, Iran formally notified the agency that it was terminating the Cairo arrangement and warned that further steps could follow. Officials also rejected any renewed access to bombed sites such as Fordo and Natanz and continued to refuse entry to a suspected new enrichment location known as Pickaxe Mountain. With inspectors kept out, the status of Iran’s nuclear stockpile has become impossible to verify.
Analysts estimate that Iran retains roughly 400kg of uranium enriched to sixty per cent, which is perilously close to weapons grade. That quantity is believed to be sufficient for several nuclear devices. Conflicting claims from Israel and Iran suggest that this material is either buried under rubble or has been discreetly moved elsewhere. Either scenario deepens the uncertainty that surrounds Iran’s programme.
This lack of visibility has created what many analysts describe as a dangerous stalemate. Without inspections or diplomacy, mistrust grows on all sides. Israeli officials believe that the June strikes were only a partial success and have hinted that a further operation may be necessary if Iran edges closer to obtaining a nuclear weapon. Many Gulf states have come to view another confrontation as almost inevitable. Iran’s leadership appears to share this expectation and has begun preparing for a potential new war.
Senior officials have spoken of plans to launch as many as 2,000 missiles simultaneously in any future conflict, far more than the 500 fired in June. The intention is to overwhelm Israel’s air defence systems and to demonstrate that Iran remains capable of powerful retaliation despite the damage inflicted earlier in the year.
As military tension grows, Iran finds itself increasingly isolated. The reimposition of United Nations sanctions has deepened an economic crisis that was already eroding living standards. Tehran now has fewer international partners than at any point in recent decades and has turned more heavily toward Moscow. Russia is seen in Tehran as an indispensable ally, able to provide economic support, military hardware and political cover. The two countries have announced ambitious cooperation on nuclear energy, including a multibillion-dollar project to build the Hormoz Nuclear Power Plant. Iran is also acquiring Russian weapons and defence systems, including dozens of Su 35 fighter jets. The presence of Russian personnel at Iranian facilities may inadvertently deter further Israeli or American strikes, as both countries have previously avoided attacking sites linked to Russia.
With most international observers now excluded, Russia is becoming almost the only major power able to comment on the nature of Iran’s nuclear activities. Western states still hope for a diplomatic opening, and Trump has said he remains willing to discuss a new agreement. Iran has rejected calls for direct talks and refuses to halt enrichment. As a result, Iran’s nuclear programme now appears to be moving toward higher levels of enrichment with minimal scrutiny, supported by a deepening partnership with Russia and shaped by the expectation of further conflict.
