A survey released by a Netherlands-based polling institute has revealed that most Iranians believe Israel won the 12-day Israel-Iran war. The survey, titled ‘Iranians’ Attitudes Toward the 12-Day War’, was conducted by the Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran (GAMAAN).
According to GAMAAN, it carried out a "balanced statistical sample" of just over literate Iranian residents inside the country, ranging from people aged 15 and older. They reflect the views of the target population with a 95% credibility level. Over 30,000 people participated in the survey held between October 2 and 6.
As for the information source for the respondents, social networks (such as Telegram, Instagram, and X) were the main source of people's news during the war, and more than half of the population (51%) received war news through this means.
Who won the war?
The survey revealed that 51% of respondents believed that Israel "was successful and achieved its objectives" in the conflict. Only 16% thought Tehran had been more successful, and 19% said neither side had achieved its goals.
About 44 percent of the public held the Islamic Republic responsible for starting the war, while 33 percent held Israel responsible for starting the war, and 16 percent held both sides equally to blame. The survey results also indicated that 63 percent of respondents described the 12-day war as “a conflict between Israel and the Iranian government, not the Iranian people,” while 30 percent disagreed with this view.
Also, one-third of participants (33 percent) considered this war to be "national and patriotic," but more than half of the population (52 percent) disagreed with such an interpretation.
Khamenei’s performance
According to this survey, 27 percent of the public evaluated the performance of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Leader of the Islamic Republic, positively, while 58 percent evaluated his performance negatively. These findings show that the image presented by the official media of the Islamic Republic of Iran of Iranian society regarding support for Ali Khamenei's policies does not reflect public opinion.
While 2 percent of the public believes that Trump's intervention played a major role in ending the 12-day war and establishing a ceasefire, 22 percent disagree with this statement.
About 62% agreed Iran should negotiate directly with the United States to resolve its disputes, while 22% opposed direct talks.
The overwhelming majority of society (69 percent) believes that the Islamic Republic should stop chanting the slogan of destroying Israel, and 20 percent supported the infamous chant.