The Israeli airstrikes of June 12 marked a significant intensification in Tel Aviv's military's efforts to neutralise Iran’s nuclear program.
A critical precursor to the Israeli strikes was the formal declaration by the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), that Iran was in breach of its non-proliferation obligations. For the first time in 20 years, the IAEA raised and highlighted such a breach. This underlined the community's growing alarm over Iran's suspected nuclear activities.
Following the Israeli strikes, the decision of the Iranian parliament to suspend cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog has invited mixed reactions and growing concerns.
It may be recalled that the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasised Iran’s entitlement to peaceful uranium enrichment under Article IV of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and reiterated that its nuclear infrastructure remains non-negotiable.
The Islamic republic also continues to cite a religious edict (fatwa) issued by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, which prohibits the development of nuclear weapons.
Tehran had also been stating that it remained open to cooperation with the IAEA—provided that inspections were unbiased, technical in nature, and free from Western political pressure. It has also raised concerns about the failure of nuclear-armed states to meet their Article VI obligations under the NPT, arguing that the integrityof the treaty was being undermined.
In response to the IAEA’s recent resolution condemning Iran’s non-compliance—which it has called politically motivated—Tehran has signalled a strong intention to reconsider its commitment to the treaty.
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A formal withdrawal from the NPT would have severe implications for the transparency of Iran’s nuclear program. If such a move materialises by mid-2025, it would effectively shut down international monitoring of Iranian facilities, trigger new waves of sanctions, and could provoke direct military responses: not only from Israel but potentially from the United States as well.
However, Iran’s doctrine has not publicly endorsed nuclear first use, and its leadership appears to favour strategic ambiguity over overt weaponisation.
This nuclear crisis in the Middle East has altered the nuclear and strategic landscape of an already volatile region.
The strikes between Israel and Iran highlight the fragility of regional deterrence and the erosion of non-proliferation norms and international treaties. Iran is already flaunting NPT regulations as a signatory to the treaty, but the opaque nature of its programme demands vigilant international monitoring.
If Iran withdraws from the NPT and advances toward nuclear weaponisation, the region may face an irreversible arms race, with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt reconsidering their nuclear stances.
The risk of a nuclear-armed Iran could trigger a nuclear proliferation race in the Middle East (if not the entire world), leading to a cascading (domino) effect.
The Iran-Israel conflict has profound implications for regional security, international nuclear governance, and global economic stability.
This crisis has led to many geopolitical and economic impacts across the region and the world, spanning oil markets, stock exchanges, and global diplomacy.
According to reports, attacks on oil infrastructure and threats to the Strait of Hormuz have caused crude oil prices to spike above $120 per barrel. Global financial indices have shown volatility, with key stock markets experiencing a 4–7 per cent decline, amid investor uncertainty.
The Iran nuclear crisis has escalated to a critical juncture that demands coordinated international diplomacy. In the short term, continued hostilities between Israel and Iran could spark proxy conflicts across Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.
A diplomatic solution will likely require a multi-track approach involving direct US-Iran negotiations, EU mediation, and regional confidence-building mechanisms.
The author is a research scholar of Peace Studies and Conflict Resolution. Her main area of study is nuclear disarmament.