The United States and Israel are expected to hold a key strategic meeting in Washington next week to address Iran’s nuclear programme, as the Donald Trump administration intensifies its "maximum pressure" campaign against Tehran. This gathering revives the US-Israel Strategic Consultative Group (SCG), a forum established in 2009 under President Obama to align American and Israeli policies on Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional activities.
Codenamed ‘Opal’, the SCG represents the highest-level platform for such discussions, involving intelligence-sharing and operational coordination. Since the October 7 attacks, its scope has expanded to encompass the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, reflecting evolving regional dynamics under President Biden.
This meeting, the first since Trump took office, will feature key figures such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s advisers, Ron Dermer and Tzachi Hanegbi, along with Trump’s national security adviser, Mike Waltz, and representatives from the State Department, Pentagon and the intelligence community.
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Trump has adopted a hardline stance, coupling threats of military action with a call for a new nuclear deal. A few days ago, he sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, proposing talks but setting a two-month deadline, with the implicit warning of strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities if negotiations fail.
Trump has framed this as a choice between military confrontation and diplomacy, expressing a preference for the latter to avoid harming the Iranian people. However, Netanyahu and his team remain sceptical about Tehran’s willingness to negotiate, advocating instead for a coordinated US-Israeli strategy should escalation prove necessary.
Iran’s leadership has responded defiantly. In his annual Nowruz address on Friday, Khamenei dismissed the US threats, asserting that Iran neither seeks conflict nor relies on regional proxies, as alleged by Washington. He warned of "severe slaps" should the US act with hostility. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described Trump’s letter as threatening yet also as a potential opportunity, noting that Tehran is formulating a response. This rhetoric underscores Iran’s resistance to external pressure, even as it weighs its diplomatic options.
Parallel to these developments, the Trump administration is targeting Iran’s oil exports, particularly to China, its largest buyer. On Thursday, the US imposed sanctions on a Shandong Province refinery and vessels linked to Houthi activities in Yemen, part of a broader effort to choke Tehran’s revenue streams. According to a US activist group United Against Nuclear Iran, the refinery, Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical, imported at least 7.6 million barrels of oil from Iran since 2023. Shandong province hosts several semi-independent refineries which are known as “teapot refineries” as they are smaller and there is less transparency in their functions compared with state-owned enterprises.
These measures, which could be considered as the fourth round of new sanctions against China after Trump announced his maximum pressure campaign against Iran, aim to disrupt "teapot" refineries processing Iranian crude. The State Department contends that such funds fuel Iran’s support for attacks on US allies and terrorism. China’s recent decision to block sanctioned tankers signals a partial success for Trump’s strategy, though its long-term efficacy remains uncertain.
The SCG meeting will test the alignment between Washington and Jerusalem, particularly if Iran rejects Trump’s overture. With Tehran’s nuclear programme at the forefront, the risk of miscalculation looms large, potentially drawing the region into broader conflict.
