Supriya Sule rules out merger. What lies ahead?

The possibility of a reunion between the two factions of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) appears to have suffered a major setback, with NCP (SP) working president Supriya Sule recently ruling out the prospect of a merger following the death of Ajit Pawar.

Speaking to the media in New Delhi, Sule said discussions between the two factions had taken place when Ajit Pawar was alive, but his untimely death had brought those conversations to an end.

"We had discussions about the merger of the two parties when my brother (Ajit Pawar) was alive. He discussed the matter with all of us. In fact, a video of such a meeting held at Govindbaug, Sharad Pawar's residence in Baramati, on January 17, is already in the public domain. Everyone knew in which direction we were moving. However, my brother's sudden demise changed everything," Sule said.

Her remarks come amid speculation over the future of the two NCP factions following a series of meetings involving senior leaders from both sides. These included discussions involving NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar, Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Sunetra Pawar and other senior leaders.

Sunetra Pawar had earlier indicated that the question of reunification would be addressed at the appropriate time, while senior NCP leaders had also acknowledged that discussions had taken place.

Ajit Pawar's role in the merger discussions was significant. Having led the faction that joined the BJP-led Mahayuti government, he remained an important political figure with influence across sections of the NCP's traditional support base.

His ability to maintain political relationships across factions potentially made him a crucial interlocutor in negotiations.

Now, this split has also raised questions about the future of the party's traditional support base, particularly in western Maharashtra, where the NCP has historically drawn strength from cooperative institutions, sugar factories, local bodies and rural political networks.

A divided NCP could complicate electoral calculations in a region where political loyalties and local alliances have traditionally played a decisive role.

However, political analysts whom THE WEEK spoke to, argue that the renewed merger speculation is less about an actual political reconciliation and more about the internal power struggle within Ajit Pawar's NCP faction, particularly over who controls the party after his death.

"Ever since Ajit Pawar's death, there has been speculation about a possible merger. Initially, leaders from the Ajit Pawar faction, particularly Sunil Tatkare and Praful Patel, had consistently denied that any such proposal was under consideration. However, their position now appears to have changed. This has more to do with the internal politics of the Ajit Pawar faction, where Parth Pawar and Sunetra Pawar are both trying to establish control over the party. Some senior leaders feel they are being sidelined, and the merger discussion is resurfacing in that context," says Abhay Deshpande, a renowned political analyst who closely tracks Maharashtra politics. 

At the same time, it is pertinent to note that these merger conversations never progressed beyond preliminary exchanges between a few senior leaders, as the wider party leadership has so far not been directly involved in these discussions.

Even the question of what a merger would entail was unresolved. There has never been any form of clarity as to whether the Sharad Pawar faction will join the NDA, or if Ajit Pawar's faction will leave the government.

Experts further argue that any reunification would require negotiations not just within the NCP but also consideration of the larger political arrangements in Maharashtra, especially as Ajit Pawar's absence has made the situation "considerably more complicated."

"After Ajit Pawar's death, there is a party that continues to be in power, but there is no leader who can fill the political and administrative space he occupied. Sunetra Pawar, at present, cannot be compared with Ajit Pawar in terms of his political stature and ability to lead the party within the government. There is a leadership crisis on both sides. Sharad Pawar is also not as politically active as he once was," says Deshpande.

Additionally, the discussion that these developments might dent NCP's traditional support base, particularly in western Maharashtra, does not hold ground, say experts, because the NCP(SP)'s influence is not necessarily a consolidated ideological vote bank but is significantly dependent on individual leaders and their local networks.

"The NCP's support base is largely leader-specific. In different regions, the party's strength depends on individual leaders and their local influence. The Pawar family has its own support base. Therefore, when elections approach, decisions will be taken according to the political calculations and strengths of individual leaders in their respective constituencies," says Dr Surendra Jondhale, former head of department of civics and politics, University of Mumbai. He adds that there is little evidence of any immediate political realignment on the ground.

For now, Sule's remarks suggest that the conversations that had generated considerable political speculation may no longer be active.

"There may be discussions with Amit Shah or Narendra Modi, but that does not mean a concrete political decision is imminent," added Jondhale.

Those in the know say that at the moment various factions are essentially buying time and assessing the political situation before making decisions closer to the next electoral cycle.

"Everybody is buying time for 2029. The decision on who aligns with whom will depend on the political circumstances at that point. For now, everyone is gauging the situation," says Deshpande.