BJP candidate Hasirani Rath has established a massive lead in the Nandigram bypolls, driven by incumbency advantage, developmental promises, high voter turnout, and a fragmented opposition, solidifying the party's influence in the region.

BJP candidate Hasirani Rath has established a massive lead in the Nandigram bypolls, driven by incumbency advantage, developmental promises, high voter turnout, and a fragmented opposition, solidifying the party's influence in the region.

BJP candidate Hasirani Rath has established a massive lead in the Nandigram bypolls, driven by incumbency advantage, developmental promises, high voter turnout, and a fragmented opposition, solidifying the party's influence in the region.

Final results are yet to be declared, but the BJP’s confidence in crossing the 1-lakh victory margin has materialised much earlier than political pundits anticipated. By Round 12, Hasirani Rath, the BJP candidate from Nandigram, was leading by a massive margin of 1,32,052 votes. Meanwhile, the BJP has also widened its lead in Rejinagar. 

Rath, the mother of Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari’s slain aide Chandranath Rath, polled 1,43,656 votes (as of 2 pm) against 37,787 for Congress nominee Milan Pradhan. 

In Muslim-majority Rejinagar, BJP candidate Shankharavh Sarkar led by 37,506 votes after seven rounds, securing 61,386 votes against 23,880 for AJUP nominee Golam Nabi Azad, son of party founder Humayun Kabir. 

Does the trend come as a surprise? Perhaps to some opposition candidates, though Congress had already alleged foul play during polling.  Their candidate, Milan Pradhan, is currently in second place. He received backing from Mamata Banerjee’s faction, the Mamata All India Trinamool Congress (MAITC), after her original candidate, Sanchita Dey Pradhan, pulled out of the contest. Pradhan’s candidacy was surrounded by controversy after he was arrested on September 18 in earlier cases, though he was released shortly before the October 6 bypolls.

For BJP, the results were as they expected. Initial results proved a huge winning margin, but looking at past results of Assembly elections in May, Suvendu Adhikari won the seat in 2021 by 1956 votes against Mamata and in May 2026 elections by 9665 votes against Mamata’s candidate Pavitra Kar. 

How then does the 1 lakh victory margin fit in? Factors to consider are that the incumbent party in power is the BJP, and by-poll trends generally point to voting in favour of the incumbent. Second is the development factor that the BJP promises, and investors and stone-laying ceremonies for projects already taking place in 5 months give people a positive picture of the saffron party. Promises of developing Nandigram, the CM’s erstwhile constituency and neighbouring areas, and generating employment are another factor voters considered. The third aspect is the high voter turnout in the by-polls, as Nandigram saw a nearly 80% voter turnout. Fourthly, a weak opposition, new symbols and too soon a time to familiarise voters with the MAITC and Democratic Trinamool Congress(DTC) symbols.

For Rath, this is her moment; for Adhikari, it is his moment to prove the weightage of his image and the saffron party’s might in Nandigram.

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