UP 2027: Decoding Akhilesh Yadav's state-first priority over INDIA bloc protests

Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav has signalled where his political priority lies: Uttar Pradesh. He joined the INDIA bloc's protest against Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Gyanesh Kumar in Delhi on October 6, but was also absent from the Opposition's protest the following day.

The SP too stayed away from the October 7 programme, citing poor coordination with the Congress. The party's MPs returned to the joint protest on October 8.

The mixed signals from Delhi are less important than what Yadav has been doing in Uttar Pradesh. With the 2027 Assembly elections approaching, his calculations are increasingly centred on the state, where the SP is the dominant partner in its alliance with the Congress.

His decision not to field a third candidate in the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections was the clearest indication of this.

The move could have prompted an interesting contest in the state, as the party did not have the numbers to win a third seat on its own. But it would also have meant a contest for votes, possible cross-voting, and several days of political noise. Yadav appears to have decided that the political risk was not worth it ahead of the Assembly elections. The SP's decision also avoids a repeat of the February 2024 Rajya Sabha elections, when seven of its MLAs cross-voted for BJP candidates.

Yadav himself made the calculation explicit on October 6, when he said the party's focus was not on three Rajya Sabha seats, but on all 403 Assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh.

Had cross-voting happened again, and if any SP legislators had cross-voted, it could have embarrassed the party ahead of the 2027 Assembly polls. For Yadav, avoiding that risk was perhaps more important than creating a contest in the Rajya Sabha.

The bigger question before the polls is the alliance between the SP and the Congress. The grand old party, despite its limited appeal in the state, is seeking a bigger share. The issue is likely to generate heartburn within the alliance.

Congress leaders have already been publicly discussing their expectations on seat-sharing, while SP leaders have made it clear that such negotiations should be conducted directly with Akhilesh, rather than through the media.

In Uttar Pradesh, the SP is clearly the elder brother and the stronger partner. The Congress would have limited manoeuvring power, even though it may try to stretch its claim. The two parties won 37 and six Lok Sabha seats respectively in Uttar Pradesh in 2024, making the imbalance in their political strength clear.

This is also why the events in Delhi matter to Akhilesh differently from the Congress.

The Congress sees the protests against the CEC and the SIR as a national political campaign. For the SP, the immediate political test is Uttar Pradesh. The party has already taken up the SIR issue in the state, while Akhilesh has been more focused on building his organisation and political narrative for 2027.

The experience of Bihar may also be on the SP chief's mind. Congress had carried out the Vote Adhikar Yatra against the SIR, with RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav and other Opposition leaders joining the campaign.

But differences over the campaign, seat-sharing, and the chief ministerial face exposed the tensions that can emerge between the Congress and a regional party that is the stronger partner in a state. The SP may have similar doubts in mind.

A campaign against the CEC can have resonance in urban and metropolitan areas, but its impact in rural Uttar Pradesh is less certain.

The BJP, meanwhile, has sought to portray the INDIA alliance as protecting illegal infiltrators and Bangladeshis while opposing the SIR exercise. Whether that charge gains more traction than the Opposition's Vote Chori campaign will ultimately depend on how voters interpret the issue.

Akhilesh's own movements suggest where he believes the battle will be won. He was in Delhi for the October 6 protest, but by October 8 he was in Ayodhya, where he participated in a religious programme organised by SP candidate Pawan Pandey. His presence there was politically significant, because he has already announced candidates and begun positioning the party for the Assembly election.

The Samajwadi Party won the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat in 2024, with Awadhesh Prasad, a Dalit leader, as its candidate. The result was a setback for the BJP.

Akhilesh has since used it as evidence that his political strategy can work even in areas where the BJP has traditionally been strong. The controversy over alleged theft and embezzlement of donations in Ayodhya has now added another political issue in the city

The SP strategy is built around PDA, or 'Pichda, Dalit and Alpsankhyak'. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the formula helped the SP win 37 seats in Uttar Pradesh. Akhilesh now wants to turn that result into an Assembly victory.

The Assembly elections are expected to be much more closely fought, as local issues, candidates, caste calculations and the campaign will matter. This explains his focus on campaigning across the state and backing party candidates in areas where the BJP has traditionally been strong.

Akhilesh's calculation is clear. If he wins Uttar Pradesh in 2027, he will have a much stronger position in national politics. If he loses, his participation in Opposition protests in Delhi is unlikely to make much difference.