Cracks in the coalition? Why it makes sense for Congress to ditch its alliance with NC in J&K
While a junior partner, Congress feels its growth is stifled and sees J&K as a fertile ground for expansion, unlike its alliances in Tamil Nadu or Jharkhand
The Congress party is experiencing significant internal friction within its alliance with the National Conference in Jammu and Kashmir, considering it their most challenging partnership. This strain is exacerbated by the National Conference's independent political positioning, which sometimes deviates from the broader INDIA bloc's strategy. Congress leadership feels constrained by the alliance, believing that a solo electoral approach in Jammu and Kashmir would provide a more substantial platform for party growth and cadre development. The party also perceives the Union territory's political landscape as more conducive to its expansion compared to states like Tamil Nadu and Jharkhand, where regional parties maintain strong electoral footholds.
The Congress party is experiencing significant internal friction within its alliance with the National Conference in Jammu and Kashmir, considering it their most challenging partnership. This strain is exacerbated by the National Conference's independent political positioning, which sometimes deviates from the broader INDIA bloc's strategy. Congress leadership feels constrained by the alliance, believing that a solo electoral approach in Jammu and Kashmir would provide a more substantial platform for party growth and cadre development. The party also perceives the Union territory's political landscape as more conducive to its expansion compared to states like Tamil Nadu and Jharkhand, where regional parties maintain strong electoral footholds.
The Congress party is experiencing significant internal friction within its alliance with the National Conference in Jammu and Kashmir, considering it their most challenging partnership. This strain is exacerbated by the National Conference's independent political positioning, which sometimes deviates from the broader INDIA bloc's strategy. Congress leadership feels constrained by the alliance, believing that a solo electoral approach in Jammu and Kashmir would provide a more substantial platform for party growth and cadre development. The party also perceives the Union territory's political landscape as more conducive to its expansion compared to states like Tamil Nadu and Jharkhand, where regional parties maintain strong electoral footholds.
The Congress party is a junior alliance partner in three ruling states—Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir. But its most difficult alliance is with the National Conference in J&K, as the Congress leaders in the Union territory are on the tenterhooks to pull out of the alliance.
This is something that both the parties are aware of. Omar Abdullah has often taken an independent stand, refusing to toe the INDIA bloc's line, including when the opposition bloc highlighted the "vote theft" by the BJP. Abdullah distanced himself from the 'vote chori' campaign, despite being a constituent of the opposition bloc.
NC leaders are aware that if there is any party right now that can diminish its prospects, it is the Congress. The People's Democratic Party led by Mehbooba Mufti has been declining by the day, and BJP is seen to have minimal chances in the Kashmir region, which dominates the Jammu and Kashmir electoral share, with the valley, which has an overwhelming Muslim population, holding the majority of seats—47 out of the 90
Another reason is that Congress feels that it hasn't been able to expand its political base as freely as it could have while being independent. The ground feedback of the party suggests growing acceptance of the party in several pockets, but the Congress is faltering with its eroded cadre base. "There needs to be solid structures at least in 50 per cent of the Kashmir region, and then the party can give a formidable challenge to the NC," a Congress leader said.
The party leaders believe that with each passing day, the Omar Abdullah-led administration hasn't been able to do much, as the Union territory he is heading has less power to tend to the people's demands, making its trajectory fall towards being unpopular.
In other states like Tamil Nadu and Jharkhand, the Congress is the junior partner and knows its limits, as the regional parties—TVK in Tamil Nadu and JMM in Jharkhand—have strong electoral bases. As the Congress finds less space to expand in these states, J&K seems politically more fertile. There is also a belief in the party that once it puts its Kashmir cadre in order, it will motivate and boost the activities in Jammu, where the party was virtually swept in the assembly elections in 2024.