As Tarique Rahman eyes India visit, Sheikh Hasina makes strong pitch to keep Awami League alive

The prospect of Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s visit to New Delhi next month has sent out a strong signal that New Delhi and Dhaka are ready to prioritise diplomatic engagement over domestic political controversies. If the visit materialises on the sidelines of the BRICS summit, where Tarique is expected to attend as the chair of the BIMSTEC grouping and hold talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it will mark the first shift in the bilateral relationship that is no longer tied to the fortunes of the Awami League alone.

This emerges as the first big challenge for former prime minister Sheikh Hasina, who is drawing attention of both countries to the future of Awami League – and the leadership vacuum within it- that could well define the future of the Bangladesh political landscape in the coming months and years. Taking refuge in New Delhi since her ouster from Bangladesh two years ago, Hasina’s address to the media is aimed at not only putting focus back on her desire to return to her country, but also on the future of the country’s oldest and once-dominant political force. What is worrying Hasina more is also the underlying reality that New Delhi will continue to maintain working relations with Dhaka in a post-Awami League era, leaving room open for Tarique to reset interactions in a new way that meet present-day requirements.

“Hasina feels a need to reassure her supporters, revive the demoralised organisation and project herself as an indispensable political force,” says Zillur Rahman, a political analyst based in Dhaka. But with senior leaders either in jail, in hiding or outside the country, the momentum built by Hasina is expected to be short lived and its impact limited.

During the national elections early this year, the Awami League vote-base did not disappear completely, but its voters tactically supported the BNP or stayed away from the polls altogether. But how long the party can keep its flock together will also depend on how soon the Awami League sets its own house in order. “When there is no direction from the party leadership, the supporters become frustrated,” explains Zillur. “Hasina’s address or conversations with grassroots leaders over the telephone cannot be a substitute for a fully functioning political organisation.”

Political analysts believe that unless there is a clear political strategy and an interim leadership installed in the Awami League, its road back to Dhaka remains uncertain. The Awami League needs to attempt a revival, if not a rebirth, say insiders.

A lifeline in local elections

The Awami League’s first opportunity for political revival can come through the local body elections scheduled to begin in the next two months. The interim government had abolished the system where political parties officially nominate candidates and party symbols are used during campaigning. Now, candidates will contest without party banners, symbols and for the Awami League these changes can prove advantageous. Its political networks will be tested, and grassroots support revived, an opportunity that Hasina is sensing sitting miles away, which is also why she is keen to address her supporters at this juncture.

The challenge, however, remains in the party’s inability to provide an alternative or interim leadership that can drive its support base out of hiding. With the ruling BNP claiming an opportunity lies before the Awami League to reinvent itself in a post-Hasina era, the fact that she can neither return to face trial nor stay in Delhi and muster support raises a question mark on the future of Awami League regardless of its electoral prospects.

No ban to speak?

Hasina’s media appearance has triggered criticism from sections in Bangladesh over her political activities in India. But in an interesting departure, the International Crimes Tribunal has clarified that there is no “blanket ban” on her speaking to the media or issuing statements, provided they do not threaten Bangladesh’s sovereignty. Technically speaking, for Hasina, it removes one legal hurdle in addressing her supporters and allowing media to provide coverage. As far as the BNP government is concerned, as long as the cases against her proceed, it is an opportunity to skirt criticism of any curbs on media, projecting a stance different from the ousted Awami League government. At the same time, with memories of July uprising continuing to haunt streets of Bangladesh, Hasina’s critics believe her voice may still not get the amplification it is looking for in the country. That brings focus back on New Delhi and Hasina’s scattered support base and what she is able to achieve for herself and the Awami league.