The Indian Meteorological Department has predicted a below-normal monsoon for India in 2026, at 90% of the long-period average, largely due to the onset of an El Niño phenomenon expected to develop into a "super El Niño" that typically weakens the Indian monsoon, posing significant risks to the rain-dependent agricultural sector, potentially increasing food prices amidst existing inflation, and impacting drinking water and energy demands, with the situation potentially exacerbated by a predicted neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which usually mitigates El Niño's effects, and compounded by the backdrop of global warming leading to predictions of 2027 being the world's warmest year on record.

The Indian Meteorological Department has predicted a below-normal monsoon for India in 2026, at 90% of the long-period average, largely due to the onset of an El Niño phenomenon expected to develop into a "super El Niño" that typically weakens the Indian monsoon, posing significant risks to the rain-dependent agricultural sector, potentially increasing food prices amidst existing inflation, and impacting drinking water and energy demands, with the situation potentially exacerbated by a predicted neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which usually mitigates El Niño's effects, and compounded by the backdrop of global warming leading to predictions of 2027 being the world's warmest year on record.

The Indian Meteorological Department has predicted a below-normal monsoon for India in 2026, at 90% of the long-period average, largely due to the onset of an El Niño phenomenon expected to develop into a "super El Niño" that typically weakens the Indian monsoon, posing significant risks to the rain-dependent agricultural sector, potentially increasing food prices amidst existing inflation, and impacting drinking water and energy demands, with the situation potentially exacerbated by a predicted neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which usually mitigates El Niño's effects, and compounded by the backdrop of global warming leading to predictions of 2027 being the world's warmest year on record.

Every year, as summer peaks and India sizzles, the impending monsoon draws much anticipation. The year 2026 is no different. Yet, it is. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted below-normal rainfall, at 90% of the long-period average. Among the factors is the onset of El Niño, a weather phenomenon that has traditionally meant a weaker monsoon in India. Starting in June, it is further expected to develop into a ‘super El Niño,’ which could drive up global temperatures.

So, what is El Niño?

El Niño is a phenomenon when the central and eastern Pacific Ocean gets heated by one to two degrees Celsius. While the figure appears small, it holds the potential to disrupt global weather patterns, trigger a rise in global temperatures and leave some regions drier or wetter than usual.

For instance, El Niño has traditionally been associated with increased rainfall and even flooding in East Africa, South America and the southern United States. On the other hand, reduced rainfall and even droughts are experienced in parts of South Asia, southern Africa, eastern and northern Australia, and Indonesia.

It typically lasts around nine to 12 months and occurs every two to seven years. The last El Niño set in around June 2023 and peaked during November-December the same year.

How El Niño impacts India

Traditionally, El Niño has been associated with a weaker monsoon and even drought in India. A 2006 paper, which analysed 132 years of data, concluded that while not every El Niño culminated in a drought, severe droughts in India have almost always been accompanied by El Niño events.

First and foremost, it puts the farm sector at a huge risk, as a large percentage of farming is still rain-dependent. Even irrigation-dependent farming depends on groundwater, which, in turn, depends on rainfall.

This could put the farmers at risk, drive up food prices, which could come at a time when inflation is already an issue due to the war in West Asia.

Monsoon is crucial for drinking water, with 70% of it being sourced from groundwater.

It further worsens the risk with respect to energy demands and could lead, possibly, to an even warmer summer next year.

El Niño in the past

One of the strongest El Niños recorded was in the year 1877. This was also when India faced the devastating Great Famine, which killed over 5 million. While the weather event was one aspect, there were also other factors that played a role then.

Another strong El Niño was recorded in 1998.

Each El Niño is, however, different, and so is its impact. And there are other weather events, too, which determine the nature of the monsoon.

What is the Indian Ocean Dipole?

This is one such weather event that holds the potential to mitigate El Niño’s worst impact.

The Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD, is measured in terms of the temperature difference between the western Indian Ocean (off East Africa) and the eastern Indian Ocean (off Indonesia). A positive IOD can counteract the impact of a strong El Niño. For instance, despite a strong El Niño condition in 1997-98, India was impacted less due to the IOD.

This year, however, the IMD has predicted a neutral IOD, which could turn positive but only towards the end of the monsoon season.

As India braces for a weaker-than-normal monsoon, it is crucial to factor in global warming, too. Reports suggest the year 2027 could be the world’s warmest on record. And global weather patterns, unlike humans, don’t know territorial boundaries.

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