The alliance between Congress party and Samajwadi Party, which created ripples in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections by winning 43 of Uttar Pradesh’s 80 seats together and limiting the BJP from securing a majority on its own, is yet to formally bring clarity on its shape for the 2027 Assembly elections, even though leaders from both sides have the understanding that they would be contesting together.
One thing dragging things backward for the alliance is a section of senior Congress leaders trying to build a discourse within the party around courting Mayawati for the assembly elections. There are broadly two calculations behind it. One, that an alliance with Mayawati could help Congress have a larger seat share and wider political space. A perception held by lower rung of the Congress in the state. The second, and perhaps more realistic, is that the idea is being used as a pressure tactic during negotiations with the SP.
However, several senior Congress leaders privately believe such politics would be unwise. According to them, only a Congress-SP alliance can seriously challenge the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. Their argument is that Mayawati’s vote share has been shrinking election after election, and any alliance with her would only provide political oxygen to the BSP at a time when the SP sees her decline as indirectly helping expand its own voter base.
A Congress office bearer in the state says, “Currently the Congress itself does not know clearly who it has to fight with and who alongside. Of course the fight is against the BJP, but whether Mayawati is going to be with us or Akhilesh, there is confusion. The cadre can easily get into confusion if the leadership is not clear.”
Despite this, there is a broad understanding within both parties that they cannot afford to drift away from each other after the gains of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Akhilesh Yadav too has repeatedly signalled that the alliance would continue. Congress leaders say the uncertainty largely comes from a few senior leaders in Congress trying to leverage their own political relevance by keeping the situation fluid.
Several leaders believe early preparations are essential if the Opposition wants to unite its organisational strength well before the elections.
“I would say both parties should finalise candidates months before the elections so that whoever wants to rebel, rebels early and returns to the fold in time,” says a senior Congress leader involved in decision-making in Uttar Pradesh. “It should not happen that at the last moment people feel discarded and revolt. They should be handled with dignity and convinced back as early as possible so that the alliance becomes battle-ready.
There is another reason for moving early. The Dalit vote, which accounts for over 20 per cent in the state, is today fragmented. While a section of Jatav Dalits continues to remain with the BSP, many non-Jatav Dalits have moved towards the BJP, while another section has shifted towards the SP-Congress alliance. With Mayawati’s political decline, many Dalit voters may now be searching for a more permanent political space.
Several analysts believe that while many Dalits may still hesitate to move directly towards the SP because of historical social contradictions, the Congress could act as a bridge and create a sense of trust among Dalits towards the alliance framework, especially when combined with the SP’s PDA slogan — Pichda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak.
Moreover, the consolidation of Dalit and Muslim voters behind a united Opposition alliance, communities which together account for more than 40 per cent of Uttar Pradesh’s population, could provide the alliance the same social leverage it benefited from during the Lok Sabha elections.
“Some Dalits who want to move away from Mayawati and do not see the BJP as their natural party may still hesitate to vote directly for the SP,” says a political observer, “they may come only if the Congress aggressively expands its Dalit outreach. But Congress is still slow in doing that.”
