Tamil Nadu Assembly will witness a floor test on Wednesday with Chief Minister C. Joseph Vijay seeking a majority on the floor of the house. Over the past week, much like a Vijay film, peole in the state have been seeing much intrigue and drama, as the political equations in the state changed with Vijay and his TVK emerging victorious in the polls.
Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) won from 108 seats in the recently concluded assembly elections. With numbers short of the halfway mark in the 234-member assembly, Vijay was not invited by Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar to form the government. Vijay and his TVK sought the support of the smaller parties, which were part of the DMK alliance. While the Congress and its five MLAs extended conditional support, the VCK, CPI, CPI(M) and the IUML, with two MLAs each, extended unconditional support. With this, Vijay gave the letter of support to the governor and was sworn in as the chief minister on May 10.
However, Vijay and his TVK, which has only 107 MLAs, will have to prove its majority on the floor of the house on or before May 13 (Wednesday). Let's break down the numbers here:
The Tamil Nadu assembly has 234 members. But here we have to exclude one seat or one MLA, as Vijay won from two constituencies. He had already resigned as the legislator from Trichy (East). We also have to take off the speaker from the count of legislators who will cast a vote for the majority mark. That brings down the number for the floor test to 232. The halfway mark out of this 232 is 116, which means Vijay needs the support of at least 117 legislators to comfortably win the trust vote.
At the moment, Vijay appears to be in a safe and comfortable position. The TVK has 106 legislators. The Congress has already extended its support with five MLAs; VCK, CPI, CPI(M) and IUML have two each. This takes the TVK’s support numbers from 106 to 119 legislators.
But then came a setback. The Madras High Court, after hearing a petition filed by former minister K.R. Periyakaruppan who lost against the TVK legislator R. Srinivasa Sethupathy by one vote, abstained Sethupathy from taking part in the floor test. With Sethupathy unable to vote, Vijay’s effective strength comes down to 118. But even then, he remains above the majority mark.
Adding to this 118 is the AIADMK’s C.Ve. Shanmugam faction, which has announced support for Vijay during the trust vote. Though the numbers within this faction have been fluctuating, sources in the AIADMK say it is 31 out of the 47 MLAs from the AIADMK. This means it is two-thirds of the total AIADMK legislators and the anti-defection law will not apply if they disobey the whip order. So the number of supporters on the floor of the assembly rises to 118 plus 31, which means 149. Then there is one more addition. AMMK’s Kamaraj, who won from Mannargudi, extended support to Vijay during the debate on the Speaker election, following which he was dismissed from the party. And now he will add to the 149 supporters on the floor, which takes the tally to 150.
It is very clear that the Vijay has the numbers and he will win the floor test. But the next few months remain crucial, as the numbers of the smaller allies such as the Congress, VCK, CPI, CPI(M) and the IUML. If the TVK government pushes or takes a stand in favour of the BJP or makes any policy decision against these smaller parties, then they might walk away. But this is where the C.Ve. Shanmugam faction in the assembly will help Vijay and his TVK government. This will offer stability.
However, this also raises a larger political question, as the AIADMK legislators were part of the NDA alliance. Smaller allies could react strongly if Vijay eventually seeks to form a government with the support of this faction.